Asklemmy

please tell me that I’m overexagurating

You're overexaggerating.

Nah, there won't be WW3. Instead we get countries sabotaging each other via hacking critical infrastructure, proxy wars, propaganda, trade wars.

I doubt there will ever be a direct "hot war" between the top five nuclear powers ever again.

WW3 is not what's gonna kill people, climate change is more likely gonna be humanity's downfall.

No. It’s bad for the economy.

The situation today is nowhere near as bad as the Cold War.

Think of it this way. All of the 0.01%ers in china, USA and Russia share the same tastes and values. Think any of them are really hot to blow up their nice places on the Rivera?

Could already be going. We didn't name them World War 1 and World War 2 until after they were over

I've been expecting WW3 since 1983.

In 2001 there was that 9/11 thing and it sounded like WW3 had just started. Turns out, it didn't. Well, lots of things did happen as a result of it, but WW3 wasn't one of them. Soon after that, USA was involved in a number of wars in the middle east and it felt like WW3 had just started. Again, it didn't. Some time around 2010s the tension between North Korea and South Korea was getting pretty intense, and a friend of mine started talking WW3... As usual, WW3 didn't start.

At the moment, the situation in Ukraine feels just like all the other major incidents, but we'll see how it works out. If you expose your mind to tabloid journalism, it begins to feel like the entire world is about to explode. History has a tendency of repeating itself, so I suggest reading about the things that lead to WW1 and WW2. Once, you've done that, you'll begin to pay attention to certain signs and start ignoring most of the nonsense tabloids keep writing about.

It's reminiscent of the cold war.

According to the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, we are closer to nuclear war now than ever in history. Closer than when boomers were doing school duck and cover drills.

2024 Doomsday Clock Statement: A moment of historic danger: It is still 90 seconds to midnight

I think that the true world war 3 will not be nations against nations, but citizens against their own nations. The stage is set for an actual paradigm shift or system annihilation. We will not support civilization if it doesn't change, either the people destroy the pyramid or the pyramid will destroy the world.

No thanks. Appreciate the offer though, very kind of you.

I don't think so.

Primarily because there's not economic benefit in it for the ruling class.

Also, we've made the experience of the war in the middle east around 2000 where the USA couldn't even occupy a farmer's state for more than a couple years.

I don't think anybody realistically thinks they can take over another (big) country in this time.

Star Trek says that we shouldn't expect World War 3 until 2026, so we've got 1 more year to live to the fullest before then.

No.

Russia (the current primary aggressor) is on the brink of a banking system collapse. It doesn't have the money to wage war on a bigger scale than it already is.

China is far more interested in trade than hostilities.

The middle east has been a tinder box for over a hundred years. I don't see it dragging outsiders into it and hopefully we have a respite coming.

Central Asia has tension between India and Pakistan, but that's nothing new. India could piss off China or the reverse, and if that kicked off the loss of life could be on a scale that would be unprecedented but still I think it wouldn't drag the west in.

No.

When Trump was elected again I spent about 3 weeks living with an existential dread I've never in my life felt before.

Whenever it happens, it is coming.

Anything could happen of course, but I don't see this as a likely scenario myself. What's more likely is that we return to bloc competition similar to what we saw during the Cold War. Except this time it's going to be G7 against the BRICS.

No

I think it has already started. It just hasn't consolidated yet.

So, WW3 won't happen until the oligarchy says it's time. Not sure why now would be the time, but I suppose it could be. There's like a billion people in the world making a dollar a day, a few billion people only making a few dollars a day... That's a few billion dollars per day the oligarchy almost certainly thinks belongs in their pocket instead. So I could see them continuing to squeeze the world for every last drop of wealth, which I think will cause unrest in a lot of places. Add climate change to that and I think things just get bad everywhere for most people. Obviously the oligarchy will just go to their islands, yachts, bunkers until a few billion are dead and they can pop back out with their private armies ready to "save" the world.

A lot of people think they need us to buy their trinkets, but the entire consumer middle class is only like 100 years old, and I think was only designed to keep us distracted while they plundered the world. Now that a small handful of people own everything, and soon enough robots and AI will replace most human labor, it's mission accomplished and we can go back to feudalism where they are gods and everyone else is slaves.

You never really know, it's plausible. But I doubt it. It doesn't seem any more likely now than it did in 2016.

Ceasefire in Gaza for a minimum of 6 weeks (if I understood the news correctly) is huge. That conflict might be close to over if we're lucky.

You're not overexagerating, the property crisis in the imperial core is becoming so severe that there are only 2 solutions, either the people rebel against its ruling class or they side with them and engage in yet another settler project. In my honest opinion, the latter seems like the most probably outcome, its already very advanced in Palestine and its starting in Syria.