Ropianos

You're right, our views differ quite a lot. In your comment I disagree with basically every conclusion. The Russian economy is worse off, the war will end with Russia getting at most Crimea and a coup in the US is completely unrealistic as of now.

Time will tell.

TBH, I haven't read that much about the aftermath. I only heard some parts (e.g. the secret services) kept quiet for quite some time which suggests for me that they didn't really care either way. If everyone really supported him it does make a coup/collapse less likely. The impression I got was simply:

• The support for Putin was cautious, especially in the beginning
• Putins handling and Lukashenkos involvement do not convey strength thereby making everyone with power more likely to support a future coup

I also don't think the gang of eight is that diectly relatable because the SU collapsed. Here, it would simply mean replacing one president for another. In theory, a coup is as simple as a successful assasination (ignoring the successor question).

For me, it doesn't look like there is any way out for Putin. Winning the war is unrealistic at this time, would take a long time and would result in a long embargo from the west, destroying the economy even further. Losing the war will probably result in extreme protests with all the casualties that already occurred. We will see whatever happens. I assume that Prigozhin failed not because the elite support Putin but because they are even more afraid of him. I assume everyone with money wants the war to end.

And about the USA, yeah that's a bit of a whataboutism. There is a lot of division there and I think they are one bad president away from significantly worsening the situation. We will see about that too I guess.

First things first, the US is going to deny involvment either way. So this means nothing TBH.

Lukashenko being involved is quite weird to me and makes me wonder if there is something going on there. Does Prigozhin really think that his life is safe now? Or was it simply delayed (e.g. because of assistance by Lukashenko in a future coup?). It doesn't really make sense either way.

I mean, I agree with your points here. Honestly, I'm wondering why he started in the first place as his life still is in danger.

I just don't agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn't this show how weak Russia currently is?

But did the coup really fail? Prigozhin simply called it off after !another! country negotiated a solution. The coup in Turkey failed because of, seemingly, Erdogan being too powerful and the people loving him. In Russia it failed because of Lukashenko intervening and Prigozhin calling it off. Putin does not look strong currently.

Okay, sure. Still a bit skeptical about point 2 but we will see.

1. What do you mean? Progress is already slow so any additional slow down will seriously harm the fediverse precisely because of the limited resources IMHO.
2. I'm not quite as optimistic as you but yeah, I don't think it will be easy for Facebook and if they misjudge it they will end up making a competitor stronger by bringing more attention to it.

Well, isn't that sort of mentioned in the article?

If fediverse development slows down e.g. because adoption of inofficial Facebook extensions takes time it will harm the whole platform. Not by directly taking away users but by blocking progress.

I don't think the Fediverse is small enough for this to be a serious concern. Especially once multiple companies (Tumblr?) are invested in the fediverse I don't see this happening anymore.

I absolutely think that the numbers are correct. If Reddit is a habit for you you will not break it immediately (unless you really dislike the changes). This is just time spent, not how much users enjoy it. And if they don't enjoy the content as much because the quality dropped they will start looking for alternatives. But for most that is a long term thing.

Alternatively, they give Reddit one users worth of ads to make Lemmy a better alternative. I think many will continue using Reddit but attempt to reduce the usage (especially once 3PA are blocked). That means once you run out of content on Lemmy, you switch to Reddit. So more content on Lemmy means less time on Reddit.

The simple truth is that there are communities on Reddit that I care more about than about the API changes. And for those I will continue using Reddit until an alternative exists. So it is a gradual change for me and everyone that helps moving the good content to Lemmy helps me indirectly.

I guess it comes down to whether you consider highly upvoted content good content, especially when it comes to memes etc.

I'm not sure what "walk around a lot" means exactly but I've interpreted it as hiking and I'm fairly certain that you will have a very bad time when hiking for three days without ANY food.

And why do you think that you won't be able to consume enough calories without food? All kinds of drinks should have enough energy to sustain you, e.g. soft drinks, especially if you sweat and therefore drink more than 2l a day. In the worst case you can also just eat sugar.

Well, that certainly looks like it's implemented in a sane way. I would still assume that somehow it needs to trawl every post. E.g. due to search engine indexing and requesting removal from them or due to tracking/ad related things.