Technology

This thread is full of people comparing OPs hypothetical about 10 years from now with last year's capability.

Will AI progress that fast? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It probably won't get that good, but it doesn't matter. If it gets as good as your average junior that's going to mean something like 100% increase in productivity, which means 50% as many jobs and that's going to be a BIG FUCKING DEAL.

Especially when it's going to be replacing a lot of other types of office workers. What kind of job is your average software dev going to transition to? Tech support? Not anymore. UI Designer? LOL. Manager? And who are you going to be managing?

If the US doesn't hit 15-20% unemployment in the next 10 years I'll eat my hat. I'll be eating it either way because I'll be starving to death.

I'll take what money I have stashed away and buy a nice secluded parcel of property with dummy low taxes away from people.

I'll grow my own food, hunt, forage, etc.

I'll do odd jobs to fill in the gaps when needed. anything from tech consulting to roof repairs.

I'll refuse to use any technology unless a job requires it.

and I'll wait for the inevitable collapse of technological society because a vulnerability was baked into the AI every company is using and nobody knows how to fix it.

I refuse to be a part of a system that denies me a seat at the table.

They're just gonna sit around and wait a few months until they are begged to come back and can demand more compensation. The current generative AI, which is not general AI, will not be able to replace high functioning jobs. Eventually, a lot of those software engineers will be asked back and get much more for their services.

They'll either move up the food chain to higher-touch work where AI can't compete, or they'll do other things.

Keep in mind that most devs aren't really all that good at their jobs, so it will probably be economically beneficial for them to do something else. I say this as a long-time hiring manager with many decades of experience in the field.

It can program in 15 different languages, 95% accuracy with almost no mistakes, can create entire applications in minutes

Only if you believe the hype. It can do that in best-case scenarios when the requirements are written as rigorously as code, or where it's replicating a common pattern.

Do they just become homeless?

During previous layoffs, a lot of them left the field, and some of the rest founded startups. It wasn't always the case that firms were founded by teenaged sociopaths with strong family connections to VC funding. There was a time when they were founded by people who knew how to do things.

If it is able to replace software devs, it's probably able to replace 95% of the jobs that require mainly using your brain.

You have to understand what software can do, how to design it, and how it should interact with other systems in order to write software and not just code, and AI can’t do that. If you tell it to make you A, and what you really want is B, you’ll never get what you want.

Only about 10-20 percent of my job as a software engineer is writing code. AI can be really amazing at writing code, but unless it can do the other 80-90% of my job without me, I’ll be safe.

Now, whether middle and upper management will know this is an entirely different question. A lot of them think that lines of code written is a good measure of productivity, when in fact it’s often the opposite.

I foresee there being a big struggle for management to come to grips with the fact that AI is better suited at their job than ours.

There are a lot of dumb takes here in the comments

Developer displacement works the same way it does for any other technology

The problem is not that the job is eliminated but that fewer are needed per unit of output

My startup only has 4 engineers because we don't need 5

This trend will continue until the SV hiring bubble bursts

Why would devs be displaced by an interactive search engine?

Spend their days (and some nights) tweaking and refining AI prompts to get the stupid thing to generate the software that the dumbass product manager wants and the user does not.

You know....

Pretty much the same thing they do now.

You seem like someone who hasn't really worked in software development.

Software engineering does not simply mean coding. A production grade software application goes through analysis, design, implementation (where coding happens), testing (several phases), release and maintenance. Not to mention infrastructure concerns (storage, databases, microservices, service orchestration, middleware, etc). The whole process is too nuanced and complex to conclude that AI would make the whole career obsolete. It might shake up some areas of software engineering but only a small part of it.

You'll still need people to verify that the AI generated application actually behaves as per the business logic, runs optimally with the hardware you have and scales as your business grows. Which means engineers for testing and reviewing the generated code plus engineers to setup the infrastructure where the application will run.

The same thing that devs displaced by all the CMSs are doing - their jobs, just with another tool in their toolkit.

Well before that level of complexity is achieved, the jobs of CEOs and Managers will be gone. Question is, will the Ai CEO really want to risk the safety of a review, knowing that it IS the company. Pump and Dump won't do it any more. Then CEOs need to actually work for their money. (Or well... get replaced by an Ai)

That will never happen, or at least with how ai currently works. It's basically a glorified autocorrect, it uses the same technology underneath.

But presuming it does, yes. We will have to go to another industry, like AI prompting. Coding is a tiny part of professional software development.

As a dev, there's still quite a bit ai can't do and will most likely not be able to do.

AI is good at solving old problems but it's not trained on anything new. Its good at boilerplate and templates, but not good at original material. If it gets tremendously better, and really does get to the point where it's better than we are at development, then the industry will shift into prompt engineering. But I can see a huge reduction of jobs.

The plan is to rehire them back temporarily to babysit the AI and fix all the AI generated crap. Then realize it was cheaper to actually just have the devs make code. Then hire them back at a reduced rate on a more permanent basis with the understanding that they believe the code will still be partially generated by AI and cleaned up by the same people and they aren't paying top tier for third hand AI slop.

Well if it can replace senior software engineers... Wouldn't it also be able to do almost all of the other jobs? Or are you referring to some future where AI advances massively, but robotics does not and handymen are still safe?

I'd say if all humans are unemployed, society would change massively. We can't really tell how that'd work. But if machines / AI do all jobs, get food on the table... I don't really know what other people would be doing. I think I'd relax and pursue a few hobbies and interests. Or it'd be some dystopia where humankind is oppressed by the machines and I'd fight for the resistance.

But regardless... In a world like that, money wouldn't work the way it does now. Neither would salaries for labor mean anything.

I was going to learn how to give a really good handjob but the AI robots will probably take over that too.

Welcome to being a luddite.

It's not actually about hating the progression of technology, it's realizing that your labor has been leveraged against you. You will not bear any of the true fruits, because your bosses will use the fruits of your labor to purchase the AI to replace you.

It's because the labor market is fucked and developers needed unions 20 years ago instead of thinking because they were "rockstars" and "made the big bucks" that they didn't need anybody else.

We wouldn't have to ask these kind of questions if the fruits of our labor were being equitably distributed.

Basically in the scenario described, this is what's happening to developers:

Riot.

Homemade pornography, obviously.

But actually, I'll limit myself to fixing deployment pipelines, correcting business specification mistakes, helping business leaders understand how computers work at all, mitigating moderate security issues, and finding a new job when the unmitigated severe security issues drive my employer bankrupt.

So essentially, exactly how I spend my day today, but with less typing.

And more nude photography, of course.

Ultimately we need to prepare for a future where the majority of jobs have been automated and need a way to keep the economy going. Everyone being employed full time is just something that is not sustainable on the long term as technology progresses. We'll eventually need UBI because otherwise all the money will be transferred to nearly fully automated companies controlling basically everything. We just won't be able to keep everyone employed without creating a massive amount of bullshit jobs nobody really wants to do. The better way is UBI and people going into research or creative works, and aim higher like space travel.

We're not quite ready yet and people are way too invested in capitalism for this to work just yet. But it will become a necessity eventually. It's not just affecting IT, it's affecting all sectors: we can basically 3D print houses now, we're not far off automating farming either. We will reach a point where most of society has been automated, we can feed everyone effortlessly.

They'll get jobs as contractors fixing shitty AI code

Plan? The CEOs plan to buy another yacht. These people are only interested in short term profits, not the long term well-being of their employees.

Who tells the AI what to create? And how well does the AI understand the exact thing the person is attempting to do?

It would be no different than prompt engineers now knowing exactly what the say/type in order to get the image output they want.

That prompt work would be a kind of programming code in upon itself.

That's something that we're probably going to have to figure out quickly. We won't though given the lack of accountability of those in power.

If SWEs are losing their jobs you can imagine a lot of other white collar workers will be as well. This would mean you will be competing with many other people in other fields. The large number of unemployed will reduce demand for goods produced by those companies that are also laying off workers due to automation.

This is a bit of a tragedy of the commons where companies adopt the technology to increase profits but actually disrupt the economy, potentially leading to their own collapse.

It's impossible to really prepare for this scenario because it requires you to simultaneously be ready for retirement in the next few years but also riots. I'm just hoping for the best for now.