Not bad for a bucket of bolts ‘rando number generator’, eh?

Because... because it generated plausibly looking sentence? Do... do you think the "just electrical signals" bit is clever or creative?

Here's an LLM performance test that I call the Elon Test: does the sentence plausibly look like it could've been said by Elon Musk? Yes? Then your thing is stupid and a failure.

That first post. They are using llms to create quantum resistant crypto systems? Eyelid twitch

E: also, as I think cryptography is the only part of CS which really attracts cranks, this made me realize how much worse science crankery is going to get due to LLMs.

Right, well God says:

meditated exude faithful estimate nature message glittering indiana intelligences dedicate deception ruinous asleep sensitive plentiful thinks justification subjoinedst rapture wealthy frenzied release trusting apostles judge access disguising billows deliver range

Not bad for the almighty creator 'rando number generator', eh?

a non-zero amount of the time, yeah

also, that poster's profile, holy fuck. even just the About is a trip

Curtis

IQ:300, Special Move: Urbital Laser

Curtis Boldmug has defined the meta for years. A competitive staple that strongly influences even builds not running him. Special attack causes unavoidable psychic damage even if you resist its charm effect. Vulnerable to sunlight.

Balaji

IQ: 300, Special Move: Yes Country for Old Men

A support type character. Good for ramping grift mana, but can't carry a game on his own. His ultimate is overcosted and just sucks up the hypecoins he spent the entire game producing.

Ray

IQ: 300, Special Move: Black Hole Graviton

Mostly just receives support thanks to boomer nostalgia factor. Low but nonzero win rate in modern tournament meta. Highly viable in time machine formats.

Eliezer

IQ: 300, Special Move: Goffik the Hedgehog and the Enders of Game

Former newbie favorite, fairly accessible and flashy. The Yud has seen heavy nerfs in the past years and at medium to high levels, his stats plateau severely much like his special move's plot. Thiel synergy has also shifted towards Curtis mains leaving Yud in shambles. Still a fun archetype and enjoys popularity as a smurf build.

Jack

IQ: 300, Special Move: Snorting an entire ground up bitcoin

Rather run of the mill character whose effectiveness was rather limited for a long time. The Blue Sky archetype made him meta relevant for all of five minutes until he got reclaimed by the toxic playerbase built around the social media platform he originally started and the uber braingenius currently in charge of that company. Beard gives him +1 armor bonus which is fine I guess.

Peter

IQ: 300, Special Move: Pondering my Orb

The apex predator of SV capitalism. The Black Lotus of technofascist grifters. His character is rumored to be based on Count Dracula. Even most SV billionaires can't touch him in a 1v1 matchup. Truly classic S-tier thinky boi.

Beff

IQ: 300, Special Move: World's Most Divorced Man First Date Percent Speedrun

Likely intended as a joke character, a guy named Guillaume pretending to know how to pretend to be cool on the internet. His posts turned out to be so lethally cringeworthy he started an entire archetype of */acc brainos. Not quite on the power level of Peter or Curtis, but surprisingly influential for an obvious meme build. Extremely weak to heartbreak from women named Ruth.

Leopold

IQ: 300, Special Move: To The Moooooon

Honestly, I had never heard of this guy before today but the data doesn't lie. The dots do go up and to the right and he posts a lot of them. Extrapolating from current trends, he will single-handedly reach singularity by the end of Q3 of this year.

each of them needs a scale (logarithmic) showing how much adderall they take

I recognize everyone except Leopold. Increase my suffering by telling me who it is.

this logo in corner is for something called overfit qs, they have instagram page and that image was posted there

It's definitely linked in with the problem we have with LLMs where they detect the context surrounding a common puzzle rather than actually doing any logical analysis. In the image case I'd be very curious to see the control experiment where you ask "which of these two lines is bigger?" and then feed it a photograph of a dog rather than two lines of any length. I'm reminded of how it was (is?)easy to trick chatGPT into nonsensical solutions to any situation involving crossing a river because it pattern-matched to the chicken/fox/grain puzzle rather than considering the actual facts being presented.

Also now that I type it out I think there's a framing issue with that entire illusion since the question presumes that one of the two is bigger. But that's neither here nor there.

@mirrorwitch

It was made to write copy for catalogs, alumni bulletins, and mediocre in-flight magazines.

Not that I expect anything better from the fucking lawnmower but the flippant attitude on display is little short of amazing. How bad is it when Business Insider of all publications calls your vision a "surveillance dystopia"?

Every police officer is going to be supervised at all times, and if there's a problem, AI will report that problem and report it to the appropriate person.

Body cam footage of the officer-involved shooting was not available, as the AI system supervising the involved officers was coincidentally disregarding its previous instructions and instead writing a minstrel show routine at the time of the event.

I can't help but feel like for Ellison in particular, he must have given himself no choice but to believe this stuff is more capable than it is. He's 80 years old now, and if building towards honest-to-god "real AI" wasn't what his whole career was about, then what was the point? The twilight of the older generations of tech executives is going to be its own special kind of pathology.

A notable article from our dear friend Nick Bostrom mentions the atmospheric auto-ignition story:

https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf

Type-0 (‘surprising strangelets’): In 1942, it occurred to Edward Teller, one of the Manhattan scientists, that a nuclear explosion would create a temperature unprecedented in Earth’s history, producing conditions similar to those in the center of the sun, and that this could conceivably trigger a self-sustaining thermonuclear reaction in the surrounding air or water (Rhodes, 1986).

(this goes on for a number of paragraphs)

This whole article has some wild stuff if you haven't seen it before BTW, so buckle up. He also mentions this story in https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks and https://existential-risk.com/concept.pdf if you want older examples.

I'd be surprised if Eliezer hasn't mentioned it at some point, maybe more in the way that you're after. Can't find any examples though.

In his Times article the only place he mentions nukes is what we should do to countries that have too many GPUs: https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/

Edit: Not Mr. Yudkowski but see https://futureoflife.org/document/policymaking-in-the-pause/

“The time for saying that this is just pure research has long since passed. […] It’s in no country’s interest for any country to develop and release AI systems we cannot control. Insisting on sensible precautions is not anti-industry. Chernobyl destroyed lives, but it also decimated the global nuclear industry. I’m an AI researcher. I do not want my field of research destroyed. Humanity has much to gain from AI, but also everything to lose.”

“Let’s slow down. Let’s make sure that we develop better guardrails, let’s make sure that we discuss these questions internationally just like we’ve done for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Let’s make sure we better understand these very large systems, that we improve on their robustness and the process by which we can audit them and verify that they are safe for the public.”

Spam bots are good now!

if all of that $1500 cost is electricity, and at arbitrarily chosen but probably high electricity price of $0.2/kWh, that's 7.5MWh per request. could be easily twice that. this is approx how much electricity four 4-person households consume in a year in poland. or about half of american one. six tons of TNT equivalent, or almost 2/3 ton of oil equivalent if you prefer

I'm wondering about the benchmark too. It's way above my level to figure out how it can be gamed. But, buried in the article:

Moreover, ARC-AGI-1 is now saturating – besides o3's new score, the fact is that a large ensemble of low-compute Kaggle solutions can now score 81% on the private eval.

The most expensive o3 version achieved 87.5%

The Google post appears to be Updating our platform policies to reflect innovations in the ads ecosystem.

I have no idea what the heck those words mean (it appears to be some bizarro form of English), so I diffed the policy itself. Here are the parts I found notable.

This will be removed:

You must not use device fingerprints or locally shared objects (e.g., Flash cookies, Browser Helper Objects, HTML5 local storage) other than HTTP cookies, or user-resettable mobile device identifiers designed for use in advertising, in connection with Google's platform products. This does not limit the use of IP address for the detection of fraud.

This will be removed:

You must not pass any information to Google [...] that permanently identifies a particular device (such as a mobile phone's unique device identifier if such an identifier cannot be reset).

This will be added:

You must disclose clearly any data collection, sharing and usage that takes place in connection with your use of Google products, including information about the technologies used, such as your use of cookies, web beacons, IP addresses, or other identifiers. This applies for data collection, sharing and usage on any platform, surface or property (e.g., web, app, Connected TV, gaming console or email publication).