lol okay dude. Flippantly you ignored all of the limitations I pointed out. Sure it could happen, but not on the timeline you're discussing. There is no way within a year that they have replaced software engineers, I call absolute BS on that. I doubt it will rise above copilot within a year. I see it being used alongside code for a long time, calling out potential issues, optimizing where it can, and helping in things like building out yaml files. It cannot handle an entire solution, the hardware doesn't exist for it. It also can't handle specific contexts for business use-cases. Again maybe, but it'll be a while - and even then our jobs shift to building out models and structuring AI prompts in a stable way.

My attitude is the same because these are the same issues that it's faced. I'm not arguing that it's not a great tool to be used, and I see a lot of places for it. But it's naiive to say that it can replace an engineer at it's stage, or in the near future. Anyone who has worked with it would tell you that.

I firmly do think companies want to replace their 250k engineers. That's why I know that most of it is hype. The same hype that existed 20 years ago when they came out with designers for UIs, the same hype when react and frontend frameworks came out. Python was built to allow anyone to code, and that was another "end of engineers". Cloud claimed to be able to remove entire IT departments, but those jobs just shifted to DevOps engineers. The goalposts moved each time, but the demand for qualified engineers went up because now they needed to know these new technologies.

Why do you think I worked with AI so much over the last year? I see my job evolving, I'm getting ready for it. This has happened before - those who don't learn new tech get left behind, those who learn it keep going. I may not be coding in python in 10 years, god knows I wasn't doing what I was 10 years ago - but it's laughable to me to think that engineers are done and over with.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 9 months ago (1 children)

You seem mad and strongly opinionated, but I hate arguing when there is nothing on the line. Would you be interested in a gentleman's bet then?

My thesis is that we'll have (or some one will, you and I may not have access) to a form of interactive AI that can effectively code from scratch some kind of large-ish application (like a website), make changes to that website, add features, etc, in the next few years, like, very few.

I'd like to come to terms with you and lay down a bet. If need be we can start a sublemmy to post the bet publicly and we can be held accountable for public shaming if we fail to put up.

For the purposes of a bet, I want to suggest that a code base 'as complicated' as Lemmy is a good barometer. My getting this prediction right will be to show you an example of that happening in media, or ideally, being able to show it in use. I think in media should be considered acceptable.

In my circles, we usually make these bets beers or bottles of the counterparties favorite drink, and I'm willing to offer you the following terms: 3:1 in the first year, 2:1 in the second year, and 1:1 in the first year. If the above thesis isn't confirm, I'm wrong and I'll make it clear that I acknowledge that I'm wrong.

I would like to bet 12 bottles on my thesis based on the above terms, (where a case of 12 bottles of the preferred liquor or beer or whatever does not exceed $200, so like a 12 pack of good beer or mid tier wine).

Is that a deal you can agree to?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago (1 children)

It will happen, probably in weeks to months.

in the next few years, like, very few

Now who's moving the goalposts..?

[–] [email protected] -1 points 9 months ago

I'm putting my money where my mouth is and making a called shot.