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Multiple countries demonstrating sustained, net-positive fusion reactions seems extremely likely.
Or it takes another 20years
This has already happened in 2 labs. Final product and the "free energy revolution" are still years/decades away, but this is still an amazing achievement.
That was net positive energy just from the lasers going in to heat coming out. There's still huge inefficiency with converting the heat to electricity and the electricity to lasers. Those challenges might be big enough that net positive from one of the donut shaped reactors will come first.