this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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[–] [email protected] 8 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (3 children)

We were asking around AI industry peons in March and they all guessed around three quarters too. I woulda put it at maybe two years myself, but I was surprised at so many people all arriving at around three quarters. OTOH, I would say that just in the past few months things are really obviously heading for a trauma.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 5 months ago

Perhaps that's part of why so many SV types are backing Trump. Grifting off Trump may be their fallback after the AI bubble collapses.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 5 months ago

I’m severely backlogged on catching up to things but my (total and complete) guess would be something like: all the recent headlines about funding and commitments are almost certainly imprecise in localisation and duration - everyone that “got money” didn’t necessarily get “money” but instead commitments to funding, and “everyone” is a much smaller set of entities that don’t encompass a really wide gallery of entities

So for all the previously-extant promptfondlers/ model dilettantes/etc out there, the writing may indeed have been (and may still be) on the wall ito runway (“startup operating capital remaining available and viable to avoid death”)

Based on the kind of headlines seen (and presuming the above supposition for the sake of argument), and the kind of utterly milquetoast garbage all the interceding months have produced, I don’t think it’s likely that much of the promised money will make it through to this layer/lot either. But that’s entirely a guess at this stage (and I can think of some fairly hefty counter-argument examples that may contribute to countering, not least because of how many people/orgs wouldn’t want to be losing face to fucking this up)

[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Put me down for "doesn't think it will end." Did crypto end?

[–] [email protected] 7 points 5 months ago (1 children)

crypto's VC investment fell off a cliff after the crash, and that investment is what we were talking about there

hence their pivot to AI

[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Oh, OK. I think all the VC-adjacent people still really believe in crypto, if it helps. They probably also don't believe in it, depending on the room. I think it will come back.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 5 months ago

they've stopped putting fresh money in, but they believe fervently in the massive bags they're holding