this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2025
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[–] [email protected] 67 points 6 days ago (1 children)

the dreaded “death cross,” a historical indicator of a likely downturn for the company

[...] occurs when a company’s 50-day moving average crosses and drops below the 200-day average.

Fuck Tesla and all that, but holy shit is that standard ever a depressing indicator of to just how reliant late stage capitalism is on endless growth that a tiny dip after half a year of stagnation is a reliable indicator of a company's imminent failure.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

you can either have a system with loans and endless growth or a system where actual ownership is required and stagnation is allowed.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Fuck "stagnation", how about "being satisfied"?

[–] [email protected] 7 points 6 days ago

Capitalism supports Psychopathic behaviors. They don't care about satisfied. They want profit at all costs. Even if it means killing you and your family. The gears of industry must be lubricated.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago

Investors want to make money, if it looks like they can’t then they are going to find a different company

That’s why Capitalism was so against people with wealth and so pro skilled labour

[–] [email protected] 32 points 6 days ago

Here’s how it looks all time

[–] [email protected] 5 points 6 days ago

Death crosses are bullshit chartist woo.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 days ago

Anything new mentioned in this article?

[–] [email protected] 196 points 1 week ago (6 children)

No such thing as a death cross for a company that is now embedded at the highest level of the federal government. Don't get too excited, ass hat and the swasticars aren't going anywhere. If you havent dumped your Tesla yet, get fucked at this point.

[–] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago (9 children)

There is only so much they can do to prop it up. If noone is buying them, and noone wants the stock, its going to go down short of the govt literally buying the stock and handing it over to musk.

That unfortunately would not surprise me. How sad.

[–] [email protected] 64 points 1 week ago (5 children)

Tesla could literally never sell another car again, and it wouldn't matter as long as people continue to buy the stock.

It's been wildly over priced for a very long time, so clearly the people who are keeping it afloat aren't interested in whether the company is actually profitable or not.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago

That only goes so far. If the company ceases to exist because it cant pay its debts, its gonna get delisted from the exchange.

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[–] [email protected] 186 points 1 week ago (18 children)

I have to be honest, as someone who is not fully immersed in the financial markets, the chart pattern reading kinda strikes me as astrology for guys in suits.

I feel this deep in my bones

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago

As someone with an actual Econ degree:

... Yeah, a whole lot of 'technical signals' aka, chart reading that a lot of 'retail' (ie, amateur) day traders use... is basically astrology.

Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit... like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward... definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now... but as far as the "power" of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?

No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong... there are just way too many other confounding variables.

...

Even the quants who work for hedge funds... who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects....

...well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.

Part of this is because... if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains... is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants... the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.

Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy... well now it doesn't return outsized gains anymore.

... Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.

...

Now, all that being said... one arguably 'technical indicator' that always has been correct in the last 100 years... is when the bond yield curve inverts... the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion... soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.

Except for right now, the last few years.

We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions... and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.

But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as 'investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency'... which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down... which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive... and our exports won't be worth as much... and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous...

And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical 'products'.

(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)

So... yeah you can't really make a day trading strategy out of that.

...

Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.

[–] [email protected] 52 points 1 week ago (4 children)

astrology for guys in suits

Naw they already made that, it's called the "Myers-Briggs Type Indicator".

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

And apparently my team at work. It's more of a curiosity (oh, you're somewhat extroverted? Interesting!), and it gives us a chance to ask questions to get to know a new hire.

If you're making actual decisions based on the MBTI test, then that's on you. But it's kinda fun to compare.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's used widely for actual hiring decisions. If you're qualified for a job but they want an INTJ but you're an ENTJ according the overgrown Facebook quiz, you get a rejection letter.

It's unethical as fuck, and absolutely rampant in corporate America.

Now, as a team building exercise or role play to get to know potential clientele, yeah no harm.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Wow, really? We only do it like a couple weeks after hiring, and you can respectfully refuse. We just do it as a "get to know you" meeting so we can get the team familiar with the new hire.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Yeah, some employers are really stupid about it. They treat it like a crystal ball. I'm not an expert in psychology, so the best I got is second-hand insight, but one of the perks of working in a hospital is I get to routinely pick brains that are a lot smarter than mine, to include a couple of psych PhD's: ask them about the Myers Briggs and they immediately start ranting about how it's pseodo-science bullshit. And some doctors do rant about shit outside their scope of expertise, which pretty well puts them at the same level of idiocy as the rest of us (i.e., if your ortho doc starts raving about how vaccines cause autism, the MD on his badge carries literally zero weight: he knows the fuck out of bones, but until proven otherwise it's best to assume he got his education on vaccines from Fox news). But when experts in psych bitch about psych stuff, I take that at face value.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago

I'm honestly surprised anyone puts any more weight into it than a conversion starter. Most of my team scores largely the same, yet each of us is very different in terms of work style. In fact, one of our introverts really likes direct collaboration, and one of our extroverts really doesn't. It's really not an indication of anything.

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[–] [email protected] 154 points 1 week ago (2 children)

The fact it’s still at $250 per share as of writing this is still alarming af.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Stop the sale of carbon credits and you'll really see the stock dip.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago

Considering that’s 99% of their total gross profits year over year, lol

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (4 children)

Yeah, it's absurd.

  • The CEO is nearly universally reviled.
  • They have the worst build quality of any vehicles sold in the USA.
  • They are notoriously unsafe.
  • They had to stop selling Cybertrucks because they had 8 recalls in a row and are literally held together with glue
  • They were just hit with the most expensive recall of all time on their self driving bullshit.
  • They are underwater in Europe & China.
  • I probably have forgotten something.

The earnings call on the 22nd should be very interesting.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

You forgot:

  • Caught numerous times deliberately misleading the public about build quality, safety, and features (current and upcoming).
  • Bizarre ergonomics that contravene many existing safety standards (e.g., the brake lights on the Cybertruck).
  • CEO uses his influence for stock manipulation, regularly
  • Notorious racist corporate culture that also denigrates women and other ethnicities
  • 99% of their profits come from the resale of carbon credits. They have only made a profit off cars for roughly 2-3 quarters in their history of existence.

I’m sure I’m forgetting a bunch of other stuff.

Edit: Here’s one right off the press, still hot: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/04/tesla-makes-its-cars-lie-about-their-mileage-lawsuit-claims/ 😆 🤦‍♂️

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

How do we have different bullet points on our lists?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I’m using Voyager they both look the same to me. I don’t know how this client sends posts. I used a simple dash before each new line and it auto completed to a list.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago

Interesting, I used the list button on the web based editor.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago

Well, in Canada they got caught faking last-minute sales for EV rebates, which might trigger closer scrutiny in other places as well

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[–] [email protected] 80 points 1 week ago (14 children)

I would like to remind everyone, as people seem to keep forgetting, Tesla means nothing to Elon. It could go to zero and it wouldn't affect him.

Twitter, or X, means nothing to Elon. It could collapse and shut down and it wouldn't affect him.

SpaceX is his baby. Nothing even comes close. Starlink alone guarantees he will always be one of the richest men in the world.

[–] [email protected] 51 points 1 week ago

That's a testable hypothesis: burn Tesla, Twitter, SpaceX etc to the ground. We can measure his reaction to each, and compare.

[–] [email protected] 42 points 1 week ago (4 children)

No, he cares for Twitter.

SpaceX lets him pretend he's some great tech genius, but Twitter is what gives him the validation he craves. All the pro-Elon bots and stans there who fellate him feed his narcissistic desire to be loved.

That's why he "sold" Twitter to xAI. So if Tesla does tank hard enough and he gets margin called, he can't be forced to sell Twitter to cover it.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 week ago

Tesla means nothing to Elon.

Then why did he ask Trump to shill Teslas for him? He definitely cares, for narcissistic ego reasons if not financial ones.

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[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 week ago (4 children)

Yes. But didn't the entire stock market (SPY) do the same thing on the daily chart?

[–] [email protected] 42 points 1 week ago

But if they specifically call out Tesla, they get more clickbait engagement, plus it now qualifies as a tech story! Double win!

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 week ago

We can go lower!!!

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