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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/21/harris-leads-trump-early-voting-abortion/75763483007/
Fucking good.
I actually wish they wouldn't publish early results like this. Because you know there are people who will now go "well, I guess I don't actually need to vote afterall" or "I guess my Jill Stein vote is actually harmless afterall" etc.
This sort of thing (IMO) potentially gets less Harris votes down the line.
Dems: We got this.
Reps: Fuck I gotta go vote.
That's why they do it! Gotta manufacture that last-minute nail-biter to keep the eyes glued to the TV for their 24 hour coverage leading up to the polls closing, and as long as it takes to count each state's votes!
It will also motivate people who are worried that other people won't get out and vote, so it will incentivise them.
Not everything needs to be negative.
I can't see how hearing "D is up 2x over R" doesn't help R more than D at this stage in the race.
Not everything needs to be negative.
And yet, some things are.
I live in a state that has given all of the electoral college votes to a Republican since Nixon. Seeing a lot of Harris sings instead of Trump and early voting leaning Dem nationwide makes me motivated to vote instead of feeling completely defeated like in prior years.
Not that I think Harris will take the state, but that there is a chance.
Counterpoint: I live in NYC and have seen more Trump signs and merch than I am comfortable with
I live in the DC area. It's the same even though I know it's a solid blue area for like a 30 mile radius
I was going to guess Texas and say there's a chance, but apparently Texas went to Carter. So one of the midwest states. Still...turnout could make a difference, I'd have to dig in real deep to see how many of the elections for all those states were close wins, even if they all went Republican. The advantage of some of them is the population, your vote there could count a lot more to push over the edge than in a populated state.
Can't change it if you don't actually vote. It also still ticks the popular vote up one more.
It will also motivate Trump voters to get to the polls to counter. Plus a 2-1 at this point just shows Democrat enthusiasm being high, which is good, but early vote numbers are a poor predictor of election outcomes.
I thought they couldn’t actually count the votes until Election Day?
This is not a count, it's a poll of people who said they voted.
They can’t, but organizations can conduct exit polls where they simply ask people who they voted for.
FWIW, studies have shown that voters are more likely to vote for a candidate they perceive as winning than one they perceive as losing.
I'd love nothing more than to be wrong, so if there are studies saying I am then that's great. I'm curious what it does to their likelihood to vote at all vs who they vote for.
It feels like what it should drive is complacency to me (along with energizing the R voters) but I'm super happy for my feeling to be wrong.
People who feel discouraged and demoralized are less likely to put in the effort to vote. The perception that your side is losing tends to demoralize, while the perception that your side is winning tends to be encouraging. And even among undecided voters, the bandwagon effect tends to nudge them towards the side they view as in the lead and more popular. This is why push polls have been around for ages, to influence people by convincing them that your side has more support than it really does.
The idea that people will get complacent is something that I think is largely inspired by the 2016 election, when turnout was relatively low and Hillary lost. But Hillary was also a deeply unpopular candidate with a lot of baggage that voters found hard to ignore. Harris isn't universally loved, but she's a lot more popular than Hillary was. And the stakes in 2016 weren't quite as obvious and stark as they are now.
Those are good points!
Doesn’t matter, vote
As Trump found out in 2020, only the final vote count matters.
As Hillary and Trump found out in 2016.
It matters, but only because Dems tend to vote early while Repubs vote on election day. If the ratio was 1:1, either Republican voting patterns would have changed drastically or Democrat turnout would be tanking.
DOESN'T MATTER - GO VOTE!!!
Please didn't get complacent! Return your ballots, make sure your friends and family have a plan to vote, donate and volunteer; it's easy and might make all the difference!
For anyone thinking, "dems always vote early. This means nothing", consider :
This is the first presidential election since roe VS Wade fell.
This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.
There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that's me) that hate trump and can't wait to vote against him. Just look at Haley's primary votes. People talk about how the dems have lost young men but the Republicans, I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump's antics. It will just depend what state those balances work out in.
Cool story bro, go vote.
Already did, thanks.
Nah, figured you did, just for those who haven't yet.
This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.
Why would we expect to see turnout in Nov of 2024 surpass turnout in Nov of 2022 based on an event that happened in Jan of 2021?
There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that’s me) that hate trump and can’t wait to vote against him.
The NeverTrump Republican is purely mythological. Anyone who was going to change parties did it back in 2020, and even then Trump energized far more lazy Rs than he lost among the Cheney wing of the party. This is evidenced by what few NeverTrump Republicans campaigned in the primaries getting crucified by their own party base.
I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump’s antics
You'd expect something like that to show up in the polls. Unfortunately, Ds and Rs are running neck-and-neck, in large part due to the internal policy among Democrats to purge its more progressive elements (your Cori Bushs and Jamaal Bowmans) in favor of corporate democrats more loyal to the donors than the constituencies.
Ds and Rs alike are facing headwinds from their own policies.
I think you could argue too that a LOT of Dems are going to be voting in person this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Last election was during Covid and Democrats took it far more seriously than Republicans who thought it was all made up or whatever.
Let's drive it up further. Republicans tend to vote more on election day, so let's make sure the early vote grows larger and larger
Register to vote if you haven't. Today is the deadline in some states like Pennsylvania!
Find opportunities to volunteer around you and online
Voting early is also helpful for campaigns because they can stop bothering the people who've already voted and move on to other voters (that you vote is known, but who you vote for is not)
Winning, losing, whatever, GO AND VOTE!
A Canadian provincial (state equivalent) election just happened and a number of races have a margin of difference under 200 votes. And though the polls were reasonably correct overall there were several upsets that were more than 10% off from polling like my riding. Campaigning makes a difference.
Get every eligible voter who is sick of Trump to go and cast their ballot. Get every man, woman and person you know out to protect American uteruses, American democracy, American freedom.