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For anyone thinking, "dems always vote early. This means nothing", consider :
This is the first presidential election since roe VS Wade fell.
This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.
There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that's me) that hate trump and can't wait to vote against him. Just look at Haley's primary votes. People talk about how the dems have lost young men but the Republicans, I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump's antics. It will just depend what state those balances work out in.
Cool story bro, go vote.
Already did, thanks.
Nah, figured you did, just for those who haven't yet.
Why would we expect to see turnout in Nov of 2024 surpass turnout in Nov of 2022 based on an event that happened in Jan of 2021?
The NeverTrump Republican is purely mythological. Anyone who was going to change parties did it back in 2020, and even then Trump energized far more lazy Rs than he lost among the Cheney wing of the party. This is evidenced by what few NeverTrump Republicans campaigned in the primaries getting crucified by their own party base.
You'd expect something like that to show up in the polls. Unfortunately, Ds and Rs are running neck-and-neck, in large part due to the internal policy among Democrats to purge its more progressive elements (your Cori Bushs and Jamaal Bowmans) in favor of corporate democrats more loyal to the donors than the constituencies.
Ds and Rs alike are facing headwinds from their own policies.
I think you could argue too that a LOT of Dems are going to be voting in person this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Last election was during Covid and Democrats took it far more seriously than Republicans who thought it was all made up or whatever.