The monte carlo paradox - my brain really refused to grok it for a long time.
this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2024
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If you mean the Monty Hall paradox, this is how I've recently been able to understand it.
You start with a 1/3rd chance of being right. That's a 2/3rds chance you are wrong. Your first pick is likely wrong.
The host now must open a losing door. Since you likely already picked a losing door, the host likely only has one option for which door to reveal.
So since chances are best that you first picked a wrong door, then the host picked the other wrong door. Which means the one that hasn't been picked by anyone yet is likely the winning door.
Edit: Monte Carlo paradox is a thing. My bad.
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events.
For this one I like the example: "The surgery fails 9/10 times. The last 9 patients have died. Does that mean you in the clear?"
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Until well into adulthood, I assumed that Katherine Hepburn and Audrey Hepburn were mother and daughter. A few years ago, I overheard some TV documentary saying that Katherine Hepburn never had any children. They’re not related in any way. I was shocked.
WHAT?! They aren't mother and daughter? My whole life is a lie
Reminds me of when I was a kid watching Annie, I figured since it was set in the 1930s, it was filmed back then. I got really confused when I was a teenager and saw a rerun of the Carrol Burnett Show.