this post was submitted on 16 May 2024
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Their win is not that huge as far as current projections go. They'll grow, but the likely coalition is the current one.
I feel like polls always underestimate the popularity of the far-right. Look at the latest election in NL for example - all the media was reporting that it was a 3-way race between NSC, PvdA/GL and VVD. PVV was projected a distant 4th and was practically forgotten about. Of course, we all know the result - PVV beat each of them by almost 10%!!!
So really, people need to stop believing so much in those stupid fucking polls and projections. The far-right is real and needs to be taken very seriously. Assume that they'll always get 10% minimum more than projections say.
The polls were accurate, but right near the end Yesilgöz made the critical mistake of publicly stating she'd be willing to work with the PVV. This catapulted the PVV to the top, as he was suddenly a viable alternative to VVD/NSC/BBB for a lot of voters.
We saw this sudden rise in the polls as well, with the PVV suddenly in first right before the election. And that prospect, the PVV being the largest, drew in some more voters to them.
Polls are projections, but they can't factor in unforeseen events between the poll and the election.
Polls are generally accurate its just that right wing voters tend to to be far less divided than left wing voters. As a result most countries end up with a party somewhat further right than the average beliefs of the population as a whole.
Still, going out to vote is important.
Us dutchies thought the far right wasn't going to win big until they did