this post was submitted on 24 Mar 2024
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Sure, and it will be a factor for a long time. But it should be considered in comparison with similar historical processes. Think civil rights for Black people in the US. I'll pluck a few dates:
And after all that time, Black people are still disadvantaged as a whole relative to white people. Compare that to the modern LGBTQ movement. The modern movement really began in earnest with the Stonewall riots in 1969, but it has roots dating back to Berlin in 1897. Gallup has poll numbers going back to 1977 for various questions. Around 70% of Americans believe same sex marriage should be allowed. Attitudes towards equal job opportunities are nearly unanimous in favor, 95%. That said, it's notable that most of these questions are about policy, so they may treat gay people poorly in their personal life. So whether you're measuring by Stonewall or by Berlin in 1897, progress has been relatively rapid. Not that it's ever rapid enough for people suffering under oppression, but progress runs on a generous dose of hope.