this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2024
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They’re about 20 years too late to be doing that. Current clever-person play is to learn a solid manual trade, build good relationships with people in your community, make sure you’re directly connected to where the food comes from, travel if you can and make sure you’re familiar and have connections in a few different places in the world.
People who are today getting into CS and going into debt to get a Bachelor’s in it are in for a rude rude awakening if they observed that that would be the ticket to a comfortable life.
It still kind of is though? The market is ass right now but my TC last year as a new grad was $200k and I only started in April. If you grind interview prep you're bound to get something eventually, and new grad software engineers currently pay near to low six figures.
It's not easy but CS bachelor's degree to software engineer is a solid career prospect long term even if the market sucks right now. Not to mention trades destroy your body in ways that cause long term issues, and pay way less over the course of a career unless you're doing something exceedingly risky.
UPS drivers make $170k. I'm not saying you're unsafe in the short term, necessarily, or that driving for UPS is safe in the long run, either... but I think they are far less likely (or likely to be later on down the road) to get replaced by technological developments, as compared with pure software dev. And, they don't have loan debt to pay down, and they have a union to protect them against the employer suddenly realizing in the medium-term a cheaper way to get it done and picking up the axe with no hesitation.
Long term, I'm assuming that there will be very major changes to the world. There are lots of memoirs you can read of people in a sudden upheaval situation realizing that all the money in the world couldn't save them. That was part of the thinking behind my comment that I didn't really spell out in detail.
Why long term? Short term yes, but you seem to be assuming that climate change and AI developments don't produce any major changes to the landscape.
Depends on what. Construction, yes, absolutely. I was thinking in terms of more like electrical or plumbing, crane operation, things like that. But yeah I'll agree with that for some things, definitely.
Preface: I realize after writing this I possibly came off as one of those, "just learn to code" people. I'm not. People should only join the field if they're passionate about or at least enjoy it otherwise they will burn out fast. With that said, I don't think the field as a whole should be written off by those who enjoy the work, and CS degrees are as useful to software engineers as physics is to a mechanical engineer. Back to the main discussion.
I think we just have different views on where AI is headed and what it is capable of. Neither job is going to be replaced any time soon by AI IMO, but I'm pretty certain a UPS driver will be replaced much sooner as it's a fundamentally simpler problem to solve.
For comparison, software engineering is critical thinking turned up to 11 with tons of ambiguity and guesswork as to what people actually want vs what they're asking for. It's very people and communication focused despite what stereotypes might portray, and you often have to figure out and tell people what they actually want instead of doing what they say they want. Automating software engineering would be more like automating an entire supply chain as opposed to one part of the supply chain (delivery driver) because there's so many different types of software engineers out there. Not to mention you need software engineers to automate software engineering.
As for pay, that $170k is the absolute top end for UPS drivers and you have to work your way up from warehouse to a delivery position. Software engineers top end is generally around $500k (you can get up to $1 mil but it's rare enough I wouldn't consider it fair for the point of this conversation), with starting being ~$95k for most new grads. Absolute worst case scenario you go work for the government for $70k and earn a healthy pension with dope benefits, regular raises, and amazing work life balance.
Student loans are definitely a consideration and can be high risk, but attending a community college for your first two years before state school you can get out under $30k of debt. My total tuition cost for 5 1/2 years of college was <$20k in California. I was fortunate enough that my mom paid for my education, but I could've covered the cost with loans and paid them back by now. This is all ignoring that software engineering internships regularly pay in excess of $50/hr making it possible to put yourself through school while working summers just like your grandparents did.
I agree somewhat with your concern over the uncertainty of the world, but I figure no one really knows where we're headed so I might as well do what I love and make as much money as possible in the meantime. Neither are bad career options IMO and trades can be awesome, but it's important to consider the long-term risks that often come from certain occupations including those sitting at a desk all day.
This part, I 1,000% agree with. I was actually in school for a CS degree because I had love for it, before I realized that a lot of people were in it because it was money, and it really surprised and confused me. Like buddy you're gonna have a better life if you go and find your thing that you have love for and do that instead.
Experts in the field don't agree with you. As of now, it's supposed to be easy white-collar mental work is the very first thing on the chopping block (accounting, paralegal, sort of simple stuff where you just have to have the right domain knowledge and not screw it up). That's not in the cards for AI currently but it's clearly on the horizon with no real earthshattering breakthroughs required. But pure-mental work that takes serious understanding and planning, something like software dev is next after that. It's far, far outside the capabilities of current AI programs yes. But I think depending on your multi decade career trajectory on nothing really changing in terms of new breakthroughs is not a real no-brainer if the priority is money and a comfortable life.
Stuff that involves interacting in the real world -- handling a vehicle that can kill people, there's no unit tests or way for someone to go in after the fact and fix it, you have to get off the truck and interact with an unpredictable environment with human rules that can't be broken down logically, or you have to physically put up framing or wiring or etc -- is actually supposed to be the last to go, after anything that's purely mental. I think it's hard to predict, as you said, but that theory makes sense to me.
This actually makes total sense to me. If you would be programming if it made $38k a year, because it is your art, then fuckin sounds great. There were a lot of people who did that way back in the day, before the whole money-function came into it, and they were content and they created a lot of the solid foundations for the computing world we have today (that will likely be around for a lot longer than Tailwind or Typescript will.)
Holy shit, I can make that kind of money for driving like a maniac while wearing brown daisy dukes? I picked wrong...
Edit, I also think any task that can be automated with sensors, robotics, and programming is a risk.
Probably will be lots of robot repair and automation engineers though...
Yeah. Like a lot of technological shifts, it's not so much that the AI will put everyone who does mental work out of a job. It's more that that people who can interface well with the AI and operate it, will put out of a job the people who are competing directly with the AI itself.
That's only in the medium term though. In the long term the shifts from AI and climate change and God knows what else are so seismic that all bets are off IMO.
Can confirm. Finding a solid tradesman is a bitch (high demand, low supply) and they get paid well.
My plumber friends don't have time to eat they have so much work.
That's because high schools have been teaching that trades are for losers and college is for successful people for about 20+ years.
Mike Rowe comes to mind.
I want solid data to back up your bull
Getting a college degree is one of the best investments you can make even if you pick the lowest on return on investment degrees. Go check the billion department of labor studies on this.
Manual trades mean back problems at 40. It's strictly better than unskilled labor in terms of salary but it ain't going to last.
I don't need to hangout by fucking farms. I can got to the store thank you, like a normal person. Have fun cosplaying as a hippie on some hobby farm.
Anecdotal, but my brother does tree maintenance. His minimum callout fee for a day's work is $2,000. And he often earns more than double that for one day's work. He does have relatively high costs, but his income is way better than what I earn writing code.
We're both at the stage in our career where it's time to stop being an employee and start running our own company and believe me, his company is more successful than mine. Early days still but my money's on him earning seven figures per year very soon.
He's so much more successful than that if my business fails, there's a good chance I will end up working for him. I'd be on minimum wage for several years while I learn the trade but I think it might be worth it long term and I can eventually pull my connections (the boss being my brother) and get promoted to being a manager with a cushy job driving a company car between job sites.
Sounds about right.
Tree work is dangerous, be careful with yourself. There's a tiny, tiny voice that warns you when you're about to do something dumb. It only sounds for a second, small and faint, and then it disappears. Learn to seize and amplify it, come to a complete stop and listen, and then adjust what you're doing, instead of continuing on "it'll probably be fine."
Oh I know that voice!
It was the one that told me to "stop torquing now!" When I ended up breaking a crossed bolt off in an awkward blind spot on the side of my engine....so now the VTT solenoid is held in by a little epoxy. Because otherwise the engine would have to be removed and a machinist would likely need to just destroy and rethread that thing.
Oh, the shame...
No I'm not a mechanic, I'm just not "pay a mechanic $600 to install a $40 part" rich. :D
But this is exactly why I won't get into something like electricianship or other dangerous stuff. ADHD sometimes just squelches that little voice and I'm left asking myself why I did something so stupid and wishing I could go back 10 seconds.
If the consequences were life or death? Yeah no way I don't need a sudden brain-lapse killing/maiming me or someone else.
I am mostly talking about the future. My feeling is that climate change is going to fuck up the world in a big way, and AI is going to fuck up pure-mental-computational labor as a reliable meal ticket in a big way. Neither of those are coming in the next year or two, but they're also not like 50 years from now either. You may feel differently but that is my prediction.
As of right now, the data is:
Skilled trades, $87k - $151k
Computer programmer Austin TX, $69k - $123k I picked those more or less at random. I'm aware that senior software engineers may make more depending on area or depending on advancing into a lead role. On the other hand, many other college-dependent fields probably make less than software engineers. Tradies may make more by opening their own company. It's hard to compare. But more my point was that going into someone's house and fixing their wires is likely to remain a lot more viable than programming a web site or doing admin for a doctor's office, in the long term, starting from today and planning for what you'll be doing to have a good life in 2064.
I hope you are right and stores are still operating and there is still food enough for everybody and finances are the main concern. I do not think that is going to be accurate 20-30 years from now though. Again that's more where I'm coming from with this, as opposed to talking about what would have been a good plan 20 years ago and landing in late adulthood right now and thinking through your retirement going forward.
That's where glassdoor is misleading. The best tradies are not employees - they do contract work and you might, for example, charge a thousand bucks to fix a shop's broken window. And it might only be one hour of work.