this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2024
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152
“In 10 years, computers will be doing this a million times faster.” The head of Nvidia does not believe that there is a need to invest trillions of dollars in the production of chips for AI (gadgettendency.com)
submitted 8 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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“In 10 years, computers will be doing this a million times faster.” The head of Nvidia does not believe that there is a need to invest trillions of dollars in the production of chips for AI::Despite the fact that Nvidia is now almost the main beneficiary of the growing interest in AI, the head of the company, Jensen Huang, does not believe that

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (10 children)

Sorry I have doubts, because that would require a factor 4x increase every year for 10 years! 4x^10 = 1,048,576x
Considering they historically have had problems achieving just twice the speed per year, it does not seem likely.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago (3 children)
[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

Yes, but usually we keep those 2 kinds of optimizations separate, only combining chip design and production process. Because if the software is optimized, the hardware isn't really doing the same thing.
So yes AI speed may increase more than just the hardware, but for the most sophisticated systems, the tasks will be more complex, which may again slow the software down.
So I think they will never be able to achieve it even when considering software optimizations too. Just the latest Tesla cars boast about 4 times higher resolution cameras, that will require 4 times the processing power to process image recognition, which then will be more accurate, but relatively slower.
We are not where we want to be, and the systems of the future will clearly be more complex, and on the software are more likely to be slower than faster.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

even software that does the same thing gets slower example: Microsoft Office, Amazon, the web in general, etc.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago

That is so true, increased complexity tend to slow things down.

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