this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2024
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The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States.

After a sharp pop in prices rocked the world in 2021 and 2022 — fueled by supply chain breakdowns tied to the pandemic, then oil and food price spikes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — many nations are now watching inflation recede. And that is happening without the painful recessions that many economists had expected as central banks raised interest rates to bring inflation under control.

Part of the reason that economic growth has been so surprisingly strong in the United States is simple: The American government has continued to spend a lot of money.

Government expenditures as a share of overall output hovered around 35 percent in America in the years leading up to the pandemic, based on I.M.F. data. But in 2020 and 2021, they jumped above 40 percent as the government responded to the coronavirus with about $5 trillion in relief and stimulus to people, businesses, institutions, and state and local governments.

Both states and households have only slowly spent down the savings they amassed during those pandemic years, so the money has continued to trickle through the economy like a slow-release booster shot. On top of that, government spending has remained elevated as the Biden administration has begun to make sweeping infrastructure and climate investments.

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[–] [email protected] 94 points 9 months ago (9 children)

Getting real tired of constantly seeing news articles saying "The economy is healthy! The US has never been richer."

Meanwhile, cost of food has never been higher. Rent has never been higher. People are still getting laid off left and right.

I feel like I am being gaslit by economists. Are economists all just yes men who are afraid to tell their clients that their practices are unsustainable?

[–] [email protected] 53 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

Believe it or not, layoffs are lower than average, according to data going back to 2000: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL

I think it's because layoffs (especially in tech) are getting a lot of attention in the news now.

But I agree with you about food prices.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Believe it or not, layoffs are lower than average

I mean, believe it or not the rate of people dying from infectious diseases decreased in 2020 compared to where it was at in 1918

Like, I guess I'm glad we're doing better than 2008 and 2020 and other meltdown years like that, but with years like that weighing on the average better than average doesn't mean much

[–] [email protected] 6 points 9 months ago

The poster compared it to average and you spun that to bring compared to the worst years. Wow.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 9 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 20 points 9 months ago (2 children)

... administration officials say Mr. Biden is keenly aware that prices remain too elevated for many families, even as key items, like gasoline and household furnishings, are now cheaper than they were at their postpandemic peak.

And yet there is a general belief across administration officials and their allies that there is little else Mr. Biden could do unilaterally to force grocery prices down quickly.

Ugh, I swear every single issue with this administration is just "We understand there is a problem, but you can't expect us to do anything about it!"

[–] [email protected] 6 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 children)

Really, it’s Congress who should be trying to tackle the issues but they don’t want to make decisions so they’ve basically relinquished their powers to the President who can only govern by executive decision and the Supreme Court who were supposed to be the ones making decisions on unclear laws. At the end of the day, the President only has so much power and Congress is where people are failing to do their jobs.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 9 months ago (2 children)

I am so incredibly fucking tired of hearing this bullshit excuse over and over and over. Yes, Congress sucks and should do more, no, that does not excuse the Biden administration's unwillingness to play hard ball with investigations and law suits and executive orders and the million and two other things they could be doing.

"But the courts would ju-"

I don't care and neither do a lot of other voters. If a court throws your executive order out, change a superficial word or two and issue it again, and make them throw it out all over again. If a court enjoins you from doing something that needs doing, put on a silly hat and keep doing it, and tell the court "no, this is totally different, I'm doing it while wearing a silly hat, your order didn't mention anything about this silly hat." And when they enjoin your silly hat, get a silly wig and keep doing what needs doing.

Under our current laws a determined executive branch can move a hell of a lot faster than judicial or congressional oversight can, they just need to be willing to go for it. Until I see dozens of attorneys for federal agencies sitting in jail cells for contempt of court, don't tell me this administration is really trying because they're just not.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 9 months ago

I think the point of that article is to point out the absurdity of the top level comment that implies these economic articles never talk about how prices are still high.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 9 months ago

Are economists all just yes men?

He figured it out boys. Time to get a real degree, the business major scam isn't working anymore.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago

Because if people stop spending out of recession fears, then the economy will trully tank.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago

Rich people’s yacht money is increasing, so the economy is strong. That’s where all the money is, so that’s what drives the indicators.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago

Economists are zealous advocates for their employers. Which is fine. If I hire a lawyer I expect them to be on my side. The only problem is when we pretend that they aren't just saying what their employer wants them to say.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago

Every year is a year where costs of food and costs of living have never been higher because they never go down.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Meanwhile, cost of food has never been higher. Rent has never been higher. People are still getting laid off left and right.

These are statements that are literally almost always true. Prices always rise by design and there are always some companies going through hard times and paying people off.

Maybe you have an argument that it's "unsustainable" and there is no doubt that the previous period of inflation is still putting massive pressure on people's finances, but at the same time the outlook is good for the economy.

It might be tough to hear that because you are struggling, but you are not the economy, and where you are right now is not necessarily where you'll be down the road in a year.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 months ago

I mean prices of many food items have risen way faster than the rate of inflation within the past couple years.

A grocery run that was once $100 in 2020 is now $150 or more today.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Meanwhile household debt is sky rocketing because those families can’t afford their necessities anymore and have little recourse but to put it on credit cards.

Meanwhile families are hitting the streets at record levels while layoffs are happening across the board.

Meanwhile tent cities are popping up all over the country at levels never seen before in the last 50 years.

Sick take bro /s