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If US support for Israel doesn't concern Iran, why would Israel's incentive change without it?
The US and our allies try to keep Iran contained not just for Israel but for the world. Look, the Jews are in Israel. Iran will never accept it, not in our lifetimes. They will weirdly, very proudly die trying if they get the chance. Such a war will kill tens of millions of people, displace tens of millions more, and lead to a cascade of failed states.
I believe it's a question of when Iran attacks Israel not if. I mean, they already have. The tunnels in Gaza were built with Iranian money. The 3,000 thermobaric rockets Hamas launched at Israel on October 7 came from Iran.
America's strong military alliance with Israel is arguably the most significant part of western strategy in the middle east, the thing that keeps Iran from going frog.
Of course it concerns Iran. Why would you assume otherwise? And Israel's incentives would change because without the support they can't really hold up against Iran militarily, so diplomacy becomes a better option.
Meh, scare mongering. Also, your numbers are probably way off, Israel only has a population of 9 mil, I can't really see tens of millions of deaths and also tens of millions displaced. The region is just not that big.
America's military alliance is a sneaky, immoral way to keep a small hot war going for a century so we always have a testing ground for new weapons. That's why America continues to support Israel. I want no part in it and it haunts me that so many of my tax dollars go into funding this cruelty, making me responsible.
Iran has a population of 100,000,000 and Israel will turn it into a parking lot of given half a chance.
That's fair, but it would also show their true intentions and turn the world against them. As seen with Russia, the world doesn't like it when you commit atrocities, and they'll band together to make it more difficult for you. As a result, I don't see them actually using nukes on Iran. Nukes have always been a better deterrent than a weapon.
I expect that they would keep Iran at bay by doubling down on their rhetoric to get the most out of their nuclear deterrent (just like Russia has). But being the smaller nation (by a lot) and also being generally outnumbered in the region by Islam, I don't see them invading Iran, the odds would be impossibly against them.