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Still Android/AOSP based. HarmonyOS is a dodgy rebranding, that is technically accurate but not practically so. HarmonyOS is both a microkernel that can replace parts of Android, and is also a device ecosystem branding.
It makes zero sense for anyone to rebuild what is open source and flourishing. That said, HarmonyOS should bring improvements to Android and devices in general.
I'm also noticing that Google has been moving more and more functionality into Play store, which is closed source, reducing reliance on open source components in Android ecosystem. The most recent proposal I saw was to even get rid of APKs going forward.
I saw the app bundles (.AAB) format exclusive to Play Store, but am unsure about getting rid of APK singular bundle format for app installation packages. That is simply a convenience created for quicker app installation times for updates.
What Google is trying to do here is create massive conveniences with Play Services, instead of straight up messing with AOSP. AOSP should be fine I think.
The new app bundles format is a worrying trend! If it's truly exclusive to the Play Store and can't be brought to Aurora Store or the Android package installer somehow and APKs start to fizzle out, users of degoogled Android ROMs are going to suffer. If some big name apps are only available as AABs then tough luck.
I doubt, AABs are only proposed as an incremental update option rather than a replacement of APK model. APKs can and are built, considering most companies want their apps to be usable inside of Google banned countries, and for small devs the AAB option is harmful for distribution. I also read that AABs can also be used to disperse installations across various architecture platforms and DPI screens as well, so this point could be somewhat concerning, still not as much. Correct me if I am wrong.
Yeah, I don't think this will affect AOSP, but I do imagine that Google will encourage use of AAB going forward and that means less apps might end up getting packaged using APK leading to a more closed ecosystem. Unfortunately, some of the popular communication apps like Slack, Discord, or Signal are only available from vendors and if you rely on these apps you'll be stuck using Play store.
I think apps like SAI could still work, they currently do XAPK app bundles well already.