this post was submitted on 30 Aug 2023
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Then why not ask Indigenous Australians what they think? Vote Yes if it's what they want, vote No if they don't.
(The answer, by the way, is that about 80% of Indigenous Australians are in favour.)
🤣 Sorry but those polls being used to say "80% of Indigenous Australians are in favour" is pathetic. Just over 1000 people, potentially significantly less with crossover, means you can throw that statistic in the bin.
The largest poll being only 738 people is absolutely mind boggling. Imagine using that number to extrapolate out to an entire population of a country.
Tell me you don't understand how polling works without telling me you don't understand how polling works.
Even nation-wide polls often use a sample size less than 5 times that, and I shouldn't need to tell you that the Indigenous population of Australia is less than 20%.
The polls' conductors would admittedly tell you that obtaining a representative sample of Indigenous Australians is rather difficult, but this is accounted for in their margins of error, which are less than 10%. 80% ± 10% is still a pretty overwhelming majority.
You don't understand bro, he has "Indigenous friends". He definitely knows what he's talking about!
And he has the gall to say in one comment
while in another pretending he's not claiming it's
It's quite fitting that the biggest proponent for a No vote here perfectly embodies everything wrong about that campaign. Zero facts or evidence, misinformation everywhere (5 million Indigenous Australians lel), shifting the goalposts every time debunks one of their claims and then attempting to take the moral high ground by pretending everyone is accusing them of racism (which they obviously can't be guilty of as they have "Indigenous friends" who they mention in every second comment). And now they've started co-opting Progressive No arguments because they realise those play better here, even though their initial bad faith questions two months ago were straight out of the Conservative No playbook.
I understand how polling works, and I understand that a sample size that small doesn't extrapolate out with any certainty or accuracy to a population of ~5 million.
They can say their margin of error is 10% but it doesn't make it correct.
You cannot conclude that 80% of a 5 million population support something based on a poll of 700 people lol. Absolutely absurd.
It probably would, actually, since that would be roughly the same ratio of polled people to total population as the polls used to determine the views of Australia as a whole.
But the Indigenous population is actually much lower than 5 million anyway. Try just over 812,000.
It's not very complicated. You can look up the formula for how to calculate a margin of error based on your sample size, total population, desired confidence level, and the percentage of the portion that gave an answer.
z × sqrt(p × (1-p)) / sqrt((N-1) × n / (N - n))
, where p is the sample proportion, n is the sample size, N is the total population size, and z is the z-score associated with your desired level of confidence. I'm using a 99% confidence interval; I was going to use 95%, but it turned out that with this sample size you can actually be a lot more confident than that and still keep quite a low margin. The z-score is 2.58. When I put in your figure of 5 million (remembering that this is actually more than 5× too large!), 700 people, and 80%, the margin of error is a measly 3.9%.Real polling is more sophisticated than that, since they account for how representative they believe their sample is of the whole population, but that's what it boils down to. They know what they're doing far better than you or I, and they're quite confident.
If you want to oppose the Voice, do so, and face whatever accusations may be levied at you because of it. But don't hide behind the lie that it's a racist policy imposed by white people on Indigenous Australians. Because the evidence is clear on that matter: Indigenous Australians support it.
You've thoroughly thrashed him, applause.
The evidence is not clear. A poll of 700 people is not “the evidence is clear”.
Margins of error are not “truth”. You can decide you’ve got a margin of error of 1% and be wildly and massively incorrect in your results.
Also not sure why you’re saying I’m hiding behind a lie that it’s a racist white policy? Where did that come from?