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In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand (theconversation.com)

submitted 4 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Treasury and dollar moves the last week are a tide showing the US is losing. Trump, the way he is, is sure to ask for too much, or settle for "show announcements", but world may understand that they collectively have more pressure on him, especially with China eager to be friends.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 days ago

The USA was already a sinking ship, I think, Fart Man just decided to speed the process up a bit.

[+] [email protected] -8 points 4 days ago (2 children)

I see the tide as being more about two egos splashing in a pool.

Yes, the US economy is very unstable, but the Chinese and American economies are intertwined and interdependent. The current conflict in a not a zero-sum cads game - both will lose. Trump is a petulant child, but the Chinese are driven by a need to be seen as stronger and smarter (face is very important to Xi.) The Chinese have opportunity to rewire their trade, but it is not something that changes over night. They have a lot of prejudice to get past - and other economies are concerned about the impact of depending on the Chinese.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 days ago

The US economy is utterly irrelevant to China as per BBC:

Before the tariff war kicked in, China did have a massive volume of sales to the US but, to put it into context, this only amounted to 2% of its GDP.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew7y4j724o

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 days ago (1 children)

egos

Trump keeps saying China should call and that they will make a deal is more submissive afaik. Though I haven't seen Chinese press conferences. Foreign minister is quoted with response including "joke" insult. Trump did back down to EU a bit "their retaliation tariffs didn't become active yet" (China's hadn't yet either). He specifically sited large volume of Chinese exports in the week to rest of world in US backing down to world. Lobbying is likely to result in US backing off Chinese tariffs soon, with reciprocality on amount lowering.

The Chinese have opportunity to rewire their trade, but it is not something that changes over night.

Cars are extremely hard to rewire trade with. Sales/maintenance dealers/supply chains that integrate back home. Same for heavy industry equipment. Dealers/sales/repair training. Electronics, clothing, toys exports don't have that problem (US is only 12% of Chinese exports. Can increase elsewhere). Importing FFs, agriculture is easy switch. Getting EU/JPN/SK to sell planes, heavy equipment to China is worth it if US competition is blacklisted. Microsoft/Adobe have open source alternatives that do require some switching/retraining, but MSFT afaik was mostly selling to US companies in China for "national security reasons", with CCP advising domestic companies to avoid for same reasons for last few years. US import dependence on China is significantly higher than reverse. China airlines already have mixed boeing/airbus fleets.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I was wondering about support/repair from Chinese cars, as I started seeing BYD ads around.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 days ago

You're not in North America. BYD has put plants and sales offices/dealers in Europe and elsewhere in the world. EVs tend to need parts replacements instead of repair, but that still means manufacturer support services/infrastructure.