SneerClub

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Hurling ordure at the TREACLES, especially those closely related to LessWrong.

AI-Industrial-Complex grift is fine as long as it sufficiently relates to the AI doom from the TREACLES. (Though TechTakes may be more suitable.)

This is sneer club, not debate club. Unless it's amusing debate.

[Especially don't debate the race scientists, if any sneak in - we ban and delete them as unsuitable for the server.]

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in which yud bets $150k (at 150:1 odds) that aliens don't exist (twitter.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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he takes a couple pages to explain why he know that sightings of UFOs aren't alien because he can simply infer how superintelligent beings will operate + how advanced their technology is. he then undercuts his point by saying that he's very uncertain about both of those things, but wraps it up nicely with an excessively wordy speech about how making big bets on your beliefs is the responsible way to be a thought leader. bravo

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I should probably also say: Kids, don't try this at home ($150K bets at 150:1 odds) unless you have read the literature on expert overconfidence, and tested your own calibration repeatedly.

I heard Yud got some ribs removed so he could “test his own calibration”

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

lol i missed that in the thread

expert overconfidence

pretty sure it's just regular overconfidence here. unless yud is claiming to be an expert on fucking aliens