this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2025
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So far there isn't really that much of a discussion about it(except the usual politicians shitting about each other prior to the election). The polls are currently favoring our right conservative Party CDU and then the far right AfD
The different numbers show how much they get indifferent polls and the rightmost is the one from the last election.
Currently it looks like that CDU will form a coalition with one of the current parties (Grüne, SPD) and the new authoritarian recently formed BSW. One of the current ruling parties(FDP), which also crashed the coalition, will likely not be relevant at all due to not getting over the 5% hurdle. They also could form a coalition with the AfD, but that's quite unlikely yet.
What's also interesting is the rise in the others category(all the other small parties that don't get into the parliament). Its share went up by almost 50%. This is something that, at least for me, shows something that is quite concerning. We really have to think if the 5% hurdle really is a good thing if almost 10% aren't represented by the big parties anymore.
CDU + SPD/Grüne + BSW?
Never going to happen. CDU, Grüne and SPD are pro NATO, pro EU and pro Ukraine (SPD and CDU from the east a bit less). BSW are putins useful idiots. There is no way they will find a compromise on foreign policy.
The BSW might pull a FDP and just stall the next government.
Together with the votes for linke, freie Wähler and FDP we might see ~15% of votes cast to be pretty irrelevant. That's massive. The last two federal elections had a participation of ~76%. That would mean 11,4% of the voting body would be voting but their votes would just be thrown away. I'm not sure what to make of this but that seems like a phenomenon that should be discussed more broadly.
No, even just CDU+Greens already have a majority in seats by those polls. They don't need 50% of the votes, just half of the ones not being basically worthless when their parties fail to reach 5%.
=> 45% in total votes = ~53% in seats (with about 15% lost on FDP, Die Linke, "Others")
Youre right. Didnt thought about that.
Very interesting, thanks!
note that the "others" category almost always falls the closer the election gets
I mean, that doesn’t necessarily help the point if that drop is driven by the practical reality of the 5% threshold being more relevant come voting time.