this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.
I wouldn't rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people's beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth..
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there's a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
This page has some background, but historically they've always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they've been around.