That is America's North Star by which they sail their ship, I agree, but it does feel an awful lot like jumping of the frying pan and into the fire. The American Navy doesn't exactly appear to be a bastion of strength right now.
The piece is best summed up in its closing paragraphs:
So just what in the world is going on, exactly? At this most critical of times, why is the US thinking of tucking tail and running from the region? My take is this: in short, the US is being run out of town by Iran. Their bluff was called and US knows their puny strikes can do nothing to truly degrade Iran’s highly decentralized hybrid warfare systems and groups. Iran has risen to become a hegemon verging on a Great Power of the region. The US has a few obsolete fleets which cannot keep up blow for blow with Iran in exchanged rounds of ammo. Iran can saturate them forever with drones and cheap rockets which the US is spending millions per every fired shot to intercept. Furthermore, the US cannot produce its most important strike weapons in enough quantity to ever win a long endurance stand off. For instance, here’s a thread showing US’ procurement of refurbished and upgraded Tomahawks, indicating they can only produce a few dozen per year for hundreds of millions of dollars. Though it may seem unrelated, this new video of Arestovich is quite topical. He describes why NATO could never defeat the Russian-Iran axis. In particular, what he gets incisively accurate is that US is really only good for one big hammer blow, after which it would have major sustainment issues in producing the precision strike systems for a long-haul endurance campaign. He’s absolutely right. The US can launch a massive shock and awe of hundreds of Tomahawks at a time—even a thousand. But against Yemen such firepower does nothing but hit cactuses and empty sheds.
The US is currently at a precipice where it can still somewhat save face by retreating early and pretending it never intended to commit in the first place. But if it goes on and overcommits, it stands to get militarily exposed. The world will see the US as utterly weak and beatable. If they went “all out” with full force posture and nonstop strikes and achieved nothing, it would show that the mighty US naval fleets are impotent, all the vaunted force projection capabilities are totally overrated and useless against Iran. It’s like a bully throwing a smaller kid up against the school locker. There is that one split moment where the bully’s path is forked: he can either go all in and begin the fight, at which point if he happens to get beat by the smaller kid, his reputation is ruined forever. Or, he can take the small prestige hit by pushing the small kid away and saying: “Eh, you aren’t worth it anyway, twerp.” It may look like a bit of a cop out, but the bully still manages to preserve most of his aura of dominance.
I believe US is in precisely this position. It sees itself as nearing the “point of no return” after which it would have to either totally commit to an overwhelming victory—which internally US planners know is not possible without a massive unprecedented Gulf War-esque conflict with boots on the ground—or cut its losses now and exchange a small amount of embarrassment and shame for an existential-level humiliation that could entirely ruin the US for good—which is what would happen if it totally committed and lost. Each day that passes and each new strike on US bases in Iraq and Syria brings the US closer and closer toward the brink. They know they cannot maintain this tempo, particularly given that Israel was the US’ chief mode of deterrence against Iran in Syria. But now Israel has its own hands tied in Gaza and US has suddenly found itself being overwhelmed. The action appears to be coordinated within the resistance axis, particularly given new reports that Russia will begin aerial patrols of the Golan Heights corridor. This may be a tactic to block the US in with a one-two punch. Russian planes deter Israeli strikes, which helps Iran build strength and deliver arms to its militias in Syria; then those militias increase pressure by hammering US bases in the region. Seeing the writing on the wall, the US knows the situation is untenable and unsustainable.
Will the US actually scram sometime soon? Most likely not, as there are multiple factions, amongst which are the neocons which will surely push with all their strength to maintain US troop presences in the region, even if it takes a new small falseflag or two. However, it certainly is a sign of the times and of how desperate the situation is becoming for the Empire.
But the pressure on them continues increasing, the Iraqi resistance released a new message just today that they are initiating phase two:
Senior Iraqi Islamic Resistance Commander Hajj Abu Alaa Al-Wala’i: Resistance operations have moved to the second phase. The second phase of the Islamic Resistance’s operations in Iraq includes enforcing the blockade on Zionist maritime navigation in the Mediterranean Sea and putting the ports of the usurping entity out of service.
This is an escalation spiral that the West is not ready for, particularly when they’re embroiled in numerous conflicts around the globe. Of course there’s always the chance that US may end up totally doubling down, but at this point, its position has never been weaker. And the longer things go, the more economic damage is done to the West and its allies. Russia and China continue to have free passage through the straits, as well as cheap energy, while the West is taking all the hits. The longer it goes, the larger the political storms that will engulf Europe. The AfD in Germany, for instance, is already now calling for a DeXit or German exit to leave the EU. Things are certainly coming to a head, and the chickens are coming home to roost for the US as well, as the southern border is now slowly inching toward civil war.
In my opinion, the spirit of international justice doesn't rest in a global institution or a court. International justice is personified by a Hamas fighter blowing up a Merkava tank, or a Yemeni missile flying towards an Israel-bound vessel, or a Hezbollah ATGM hitting an Israeli radar.
With that being said, we have a timely Simplicius article on the overall situation in the Middle East. If you've been on the bloomer side of the news megathread this whole time - AKA, my side - then you'll basically see all your opinions being said right back at you, which is quite nice. It's becoming increasingly obvious that the West has absolutely no idea how to salvage this abysmal situation and we are looking at the tangible breakdown of US hegemony in the Middle East in real time. It'll still take several months to play out, but we're past the point of uncertainty where it wasn't fully clear if the Resistance was strong enough to, well, resist. Those doubts have now been fully cast aside.
Iranian Axis Grinds Down US' Will as Israel Suffers Stunning Setbacks
I'm not quoting the full piece, just bits and pieces of it.
Firstly, to set the stage we turn to Israel, which appears to be concealing an operation that has gone off the rails, and is not yielding any of the expected results—and in fact has done little more than turn the world against them, creating a shockwave of anti-Israeli fervor that will steer sentiment for generations. As we now know, Israel has withdrawn many of its brigades from the north, citing ‘rest and rotation’ when in reality it appears to be ‘reconstitution’, as the brigades took major attritional losses. Now in the wake of that, the latest bombshell reports state that resistance fighters have re-infiltrated the entire north... even ISW admitted it...
All we can do is infer from a variety of objective observations, such as the distinct lack of any mass eliminations or captures of resistance fighters, which is very telling.
In the meantime, Israel has continued to press into Khan Younis in the south. But yesterday they suffered what was unanimously called the biggest ‘tragedy’ of the entire conflict thus far. During one of the IDF’s routine mining operations, consisting of rigging explosives on civilian buildings, resistance fighters were able to trigger a detonation with dozens of IDF still inside the building. This led to ~24 IDF killed in a single blast.
This is only a symbolic culmination of what appears to be turning into a fiasco. If I didn’t know any better, I would surmise that Israel’s operation is mirroring Ukraine’s doomed Khrynki assault: where an inability to admit grave miscalculation has led to a sunk cost fallacy induced comedy of errors. Israel obviously can’t pull out now to save face, so it almost leaves one with the impression they’re floundering around, secretly panicking internally as to what to do because they’ve reached the conclusion that ‘Hamas’ is an intractable shadow they cannot brute-force their way through.
Recall that just last month Kirby admitted that Hamas had not been attrited at all, and an Israeli reserve colonel gave a tearful account of piled up IDF bodies which seemed to imply that they are taking far heavier losses than they’re admitting to. There are increased reports from Israeli insiders that sound hopeless or give credence to theories about the operation being a failure. Now, on top of the releases of soldiers and withdrawals of brigades, Israel has reportedly offered an unprecedented two-month pause in the fighting.
There is more and more commotion within society, disagreement and in-fighting in the government over what direction to take. Earlier in the week the Knesset erupted with angry parents of hostages who are outraged at the government’s inability to get them back or negotiate their release... a slain IDF soldier’s brother reportedly tries to attack Benny Gantz at the soldier’s funeral... Such scenes are becoming increasingly common—society is really boiling over, while Israel steadily loses support even among its allies.
The UN and the world increasingly call for a two state solution, but Netanyahu has vocally rejected this as impossible. In fact, his Likudniks continue to call for outrageous relocations and forced ethnic cleansing of Palestinians; for instance, Israel reportedly briefed European ministers with a video proposing an artificial island for Palestinians off the coast of Gaza, which Israel tried to quickly downplay and shush after the negative reception...
Moving them all to Sinai? Failed. Moving them all around the world? Failed. Moving them to various African countries? Failed. Moving them to a new island? Maybe THIS one will work!
Now, at the worst possible time, Iran has decided to turn the screws on Israel, creating extremely unfavorable conditions by locking down the maritime chokepoints, as well as putting unprecedented pressure on Israel’s top ally of the US, militarily, all across the region. Even as of this writing, a new US-flagged ship, the Maersk Detroit, was said to be attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea, though US CENTCOM claims the three missiles were all repulsed. The US Navy has been relegated to a glorified escort, but since the al-Mandab strait has effectively become a warzone, it has nonetheless crippled commerce. Even the top pro-American analysts and commentators are appalled at the prestige loss the US is incurring as consequence.... the situation has gotten so bad that the US is forced to shame-facedly beg China to intervene in de-escalating Iran’s unleashed fury... US officials are looking for any possible vector that can buy them a breath or two of relief... With everything quickly going south, and the US finding itself increasingly drawn into a quicksand-like mire, there are now some shocking reports about what it could all entail.
...two days ago came a rumor that the US was considering talking its Kurdish allies in Syria into ‘working with Assad forces’ to combat ISIS.’ This immediately set off speculation that the US was getting ready to abandon Syria once and for all, and was looking for a way to securely fill the vacuum. Naturally, many scoffed at this, and refused to believe US would possibly withdraw from the region. But then came today’s Charles Lister-penned bombshell for FP: America Is Planning to Withdraw From Syria - and Create a Disaster. The shockwaves the article sent are still doing their laps through the world. As usual, it cites unnamed sources in the DOD and White House.
The Pentagon was quick to release a statement denying that such a thing is actually being planned. However, that means very little as they wouldn’t admit to discussing humiliatingly face-saving retreats of this sort anyway—not until the script-writers have hammered out the exact angle and narrative that will be used to stage-manage such a withdrawal. In short: they’ll need to find a way to spin it as some major victory for Biden. For those who may still be skeptical, there are additional adjacent reports which seem to at least imply something is afoot on this account. Most shocking of all are new reports that US is in discussions to end its occupation of Iraq entirely:
Reuters, citing sources: Initial talks between America and the government in Baghdad about ending the presence of coalition forces in Iraq against the backdrop of developments that took place as a result of the war in Gaza. The United States of America made the end of its presence a condition that it stop strikes by resistance factions on its bases in Iraq. The United States expressed its readiness to begin talks with the Iraqi government in a letter delivered by the United States Ambassador to Iraq, Alena Romanowski, to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein on Wednesday.
The US ambassador to Iraq, Alina L. Romanowski is reported to have delivered a memo today to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry regarding ‘preliminary steps’ to begin the withdrawal of US and Coalition Forces from the country. This comes amid public calls by members of the Iraqi government for US forces to depart the country due to the war in Israel and continued attacks by Iranian-backed forces.
The US claims these are long-planned talks and have nothing to do with the recent attacks, but that is clearly not the case. The Reuters article above provides one key line:
In doing so, the U.S. had dropped preconditions that attacks against it by Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups in Iraq first stop, three of the sources said.
You see, the US previously had preconditions for talks of ending its occupation; one of the conditions being that Iran-backed Iraqi groups first had to stop bombing US bases. But now, the US has apparently dropped this significant precondition, as per the Reuters report. That tells us that US is making concessions out of desperation.
Anybody else get the feeling that Gaza is about to be very heavily bombed?
there are weeks where years happen, so
Today's events:
- Hamas announces the damage or destruction of 68 vehicles in the last week, as well as 50+ soldiers targeted and some drones seized.
- Attacks on Syrian and Iraqi bases continue.
- For those who wanna be tied to a missile and fired at Tel Aviv, this is a taste of the experience you'd get: Hezbollah releases the footage of a missile being fired at the Jal al-Alam IOF base, right up to a direct impact.
- Various cargo ships going through the Red Sea, with their signs saying that they have no Israeli involvement:
I like the Russia>China one a lot. I know it means "going from Russia to China" but I like the mental image of a dude stating that he thinks Russia is better than China on a fucking ship indicator thingy. We need to buy a Hexbear cargo ship and put PIGPOOPBALLS FUCK ISRAEL on it.
you'd be surprised, some of their missiles are superior to Russian equivalents
Yeah, I'm not terribly worried about being conscripted to the war (from my perch in the UK, that is; Polish people or those in the Balkans or Moldova might have some extremely shitty years ahead of them if NATO decides it isn't giving up even when the manpower of Ukraine has been bled dry) and for years, I've been considering leaving the UK and going somewhere else, so the beginnings of a continent-wide war would merely accelerate those plans. I doubt the conflict will reach the point where conscription outside of Ukraine is even necessary. Russia isn't going to expand the war outside of Ukraine because they have zero motivations to do so, which leaves NATO to start shit up, and I believe that there are the last vestiges of competence inside the NATO command. The Ukraine-Poland missile incident didn't spark war for a reason, nor did the (much less reported) incident where a Russian missile flew through Polish territory at some point last year.
My thinking is that when Sweden, or whoever it was, first started talking about an "imminent" war with Russia, this was timed alongside them being about to join NATO in order to justify it more strongly. This scaremongering prompted "displays of competency" through Europe, like "Oh, never fear citizens, I know you've heard the scary news, but we've got lots of plans and methods and equipment prepared to deal with any possibility!" which was additionally motivated by seeking to justify the massive expansion in war spending at a time of declining living conditions, as you suggest.
What I am worried about is the continued consequences of that austerity. The decades-long stagnation has turned into active decline and there are no candidates in the UK that represent even really a more gradual decline, let alone improvement. Sunak and Starmer appear virtually indistinguishable when you start talking about anything other than social issues, and they're not even really massively different even on social issues. I assume the same is true basically everywhere else in Europe, with the odd exception. Unless we really do hit WW3 levels of involvement, by far most of the damage that will be done to us will be through enshittification on a nation-wide scale, not Russian hacker groups or election interference.
as a member of the tankie pro-Hamas left, I can only point to the mass genocide of white people in the aftermath of the fall of South African apartheid. it was truly shocking watching those millions upon millions of white people be sent to the concentration camps and killed. so unfortunately it will probably end up like post-apartheid South Africa
Machine translation:
As early as 2011, Zhang Wen, the founder of Biren, served as CEO of Yingrui Optoelectronics, a startup company founded by SMIC founder Zhang Rujing. Subsequently, in 2018, Zhang Wen served as the president of SenseTime Technology and established SenseTime’s headquarters in Shanghai.
His leadership skills and strategic vision have brought huge impetus to the company's development, but the resignation of two consecutive co-founders may cast a further uncertainty on Biren's future.
Another AI chip unicorn, Cambrian, is not having an easy time either. Since the second quarter of 2023, Cambrian has been exposed to layoffs, and then the self-driving chip unit Xingge Technology also reported major layoffs.
As a supplier of Huawei's Neural Network Processor (NPU), it received a large number of commercial orders. However, later, Huawei eliminated Cambrian from the IP supply chain by developing its own NPU.
Industry insiders analyze that IP design is only a part of the computing chip, and the key lies in the manufacturing process and the entire cloud computing system. For Chinese computing power chip companies, it is possible for Huawei to establish an innovative model, but it is more difficult for Cambrian alone.
After all, the computing power chip track with long slopes and thick snow will be difficult to sustain if it lacks revenue sources and only relies on financing and blood transfusions to maintain the company's R&D investment.
So not terribly surprising, basically.
Speaking of Apaches, it's insulting irony that a helicopter named after an indigenous group is currently being used to kill another indigenous group.
They do this a lot - Blackhawk helicopters, Iroquois helicopters, and so on
India is actively bringing down the power ratings too