Collapse

Sustainability or collapse follow from the success or failure of problem-solving institutions. The factors that lead to long-term success or failure in problem solving have received little attention, so that this fundamental activity is poorly understood. The capacity of institutions to solve problems changes over time, suggesting that a science of problem solving, and thus a science of sustainability, must be historical. Complexity is a primary problem-solving strategy, which is often successful in the short-term, but cumulatively may become detrimental to sustainability. Historical case studies illustrate different outcomes to long-term development of complexity in problem solving. These cases clarify future options for contemporary societies: collapse, simplification, or increasing complexity based on increasing energy subsidies.

DOI 10.2307/27503730

DOI:10.1023/A:1006632214612

Tainter discusses the declining productivity of resource production relative to levels of investment as complexity increases, and uses some historical comparisons to differentiate between three different scenarios in this framework:

Western Roman Empire - Collapse

Early Byzantine Recovery Period - Simplification

The Development of Modern Europe - Increasing Complexity

Our current global system is undergoing a period of energy subsidy plateau, and several of the most likely scenarios indicate a decline in total global energy subsidy in the near term. How we deal with declining total energy near term may dictate which pathway we are most likely to follow. The brief comparison of the West Roman and the Byzantine cases here is critical reading in my opinion to develop a foundational basis of basic understanding from a well-levied historical perspective.