Question: Would I "just" become a girl, or would I become a cute anime girl?
this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2023
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Only 1% chance? The odds are against me but i would press anyway
literally got it on the first try the first time i saw this meme (like a month or two ago)
Would press it a hundred times
I'd push it a million times. I could be ultra girl.
What do you mean by "ultra girl"?
girl cubed
4d hypergirl
It didn't become any clearer to me 😄
The question boils down to: Is being a girl/woman today, where you live, so bad that it takes more than 99 million dollars to make up for it?
Assuming you can only press it once, shouldn't it be $990,000?
But also, it's much more personal than that. Many people are willing to pay money to change their physical characteristics to be the opposite of what they were born with. Many with male bodies could just pretend to be men for free, but are willing to go though hardships to fix their body to match what's on the inside.
It could just as well said be a boy instead of girl and would still be about as hard of a question on average.
I’m not sure if this is how you would approach this (mathematical) problem. This is my reasoning:
In order for you to choose the girl, the expected value of the money must be worth less than the expected value of being a girl, adjusting for the probabilities.
99% × $1M < 1% × girl
⇔ 100 × 99% × $1M < girl
⇔ $99M < girl
If anyone would like to correct this, I’m listening.
We need to bring utility into this. It's a game theory optimization problem.
It’s an expected value calculation. What’s the value of being turned into a girl (G) that brings the EV here to zero. It’s 0.99 x $1m + 0.01 x G = 0. So G = -$99m.
Honestly with a million dollars you could just become a cis-passing trans girl and still have at least $800,000 left to spend, if not >$950,000. Or in other words, the button gives you a 1% chance of only you becoming a girl, versus a 99% chance of you and at least four others becoming girls, assuming that you spend the remainder of your wealth on funding other girls' transitions. Though you could just as well spend that money on funding trans advocacy and medical research or other sorts of long-term investment.
From that perspective, the 1% chance seems like a loss. What does "become a girl" even mean? Are you transported into the timeline where you were AFAB? Are you transported into the timeline where you had a botched circumcision and your parents decided to raise you as a girl despite being told not to? Is your body just magically poofed into a cisfeminine phenotype? Is this the timeline where you transitioned MTF but did so before puberty? Is this just the same as transitioning MTF but now the folks who won the million dollars are sponsoring your transition? Is this the same as transitioning MTF but all of society has with a snap of the fingers unlearned all transphobia, getting rid of the social and material barriers to transitioning?
There are so many questions one can ask about this premise, like, "What would it mean for me to have been AFAB? Same zygote but with a random AR mutation? Do I keep my old memories from when I was a boy?", or, "If I was circumcised, and have my genitals magically transformed, have my new genitals undergone type 1a FGM? What happens to my secondary sex characteristics?", or, "If I'm magically transformed, is my ID also magically changed? Does God drop down some boxes of tampons and new clothes from the heavens above?".
I would ask the maker of the button to write some very clear terms of service, because this seems like it could be a real monkey's paw...
Can I only press it once?