this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2025
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Summary

Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia could launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if NATO appears weak or divided, especially if the U.S. does not intervene.

The report outlines a timeline where Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, escalate to a regional Baltic conflict in two years, and potentially engage NATO-wide by 2029.

The assessment comes as Trump pressures NATO members to increase defense spending and has suggested the U.S. might not defend allies who fail to meet financial commitments.

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[–] [email protected] 196 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (23 children)

Title is misleading, since there is already a major war in Europe started by russia

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

Headlines from 2011

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[–] Mihies 53 points 1 week ago (5 children)

With what? They can't even handle war in Ukraine and they run out of plenty of hardware.

[–] [email protected] 37 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I do not have an English translation but in this interview a lieutenant general of the German Bundeswehr says that they are observing that not all new supplies are being pushed to the Ukrainian front lines and instead new stockpiles are being created.

My personal expectation is that Putin will attempt one more push in Ukraine once mud season is over, take what he can get and then agree to another peace deal (Minsk 3 anyone?). He will then take some time to restructure and reinforce the military before again "coming to the aid of suppressed Russian minorities", this time in places like Georgia, Moldova or Armenia. Ukraine is off the table because they will use the time to reinforce as well.

[–] Mihies 8 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Could be, who knows. Though the countries listed are not part of NATO and are weak. And at least in Moldova it's not easy as Russia doesn't border it and for Armenia they have to go through Georgia first.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago

Though the countries listed are not part of NATO and are weak.

Perfect to get the collective confidence back on its feed after getting a literal bloody nose in Ukraine.

for Armenia they have to go through Georgia first

Two for the price of one. That's a bargain!

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Unfortunately, if they could foresee the consequences of their own actions, the war in Ukraine wouldn't even have started

[–] Mihies 8 points 1 week ago (2 children)

TBH it's still early for evaluating consequences - it might still prove beneficial for Russia, especially with orange in chief.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago

Anything less than total victory will lead to economic collapse for Russia and at this point it's pretty much impossible even with Trump in office. They are cooked in any case.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago (1 children)

They wasted hundreds of thousands in the meat grinder... The final outcome would have to be absolutely massive in favour of Russia for it to still be beneficial. Unlikely.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)
[–] Mihies 33 points 1 week ago (5 children)

I'd laugh at you if this was 2024. Today? I'm uncomfortable with such statements.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago (2 children)

The new Axis powers of Russia, China, North Korea and U.S.A against the European powers. 10 years ago that would seem ridiculous, now, not too far fetched.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago (2 children)

USA's secretary of defense is already saying that Ukraine should let go of the occupied territories, will not be allowed in NATO and will not get any security guarantees. Basically saying to let Russia win and opening the door for more invasions by Russia.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 week ago (3 children)

If they capture Ukraine, they will have a fresh pool of conscripts, not to mention Ukraine’s impressive military technology.

[–] Mihies 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Good point. Ukrainians doesn't have that much of weapons and are heavily reliant on west. Except for drones, but at least some major parts are bought from other countries. But yes, it would increase Russian military to some extent, though I doubt Ukrainians would be good Russian soldiers.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Ukrainian conscripts will have a line of known-loyal barrier troops behind them with orders to shoot them if they fail to obey. Old Russian Army tactic.

[–] Mihies 8 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Yes, sure, but that still doesn't make them good soldiers.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago

russians aren't known for utilizing good soldiers anyway. they are known for utilizing meat shields, though

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

And a never ending insurgency?

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 week ago

So is Ukraine in Asia or something?

[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 week ago

Major war already started 3 years ago. Europe sat on its hands, and America is looking for the door.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Man Europe needs to build up their military quick. Too long you've relied on the US but now the US is unreliable depending on who is in office

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 week ago

Boy, it sure would be bad if the US population had voted a Russian stooge into the presidency for the next four years. Oh wait…

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago

I’m tired of living in weeks, boss

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago (2 children)

What are they gonna start a major war with? Their one "functional" 5th Gen "stealth" fighter that has the radar cross section of a Boeing 747 and no replacement parts?

They gonna start shitting out t-34s again like it's WW2?

They have lost the majority of their best vehicles and their trained soldiers.

If nukes didn't exist they would already have been obliterated by now.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 week ago (1 children)

With what troops and hardware? This is ridiculous. I mean if Putin has a few working nukes, sure he could launch them. But he doesn't have anything else left. It's all been destroyed.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 week ago (7 children)

Russia has started up a war economy, scaling up production of weapons, tanks, etc.

Putin probably waits untill Trump destroys NATO and is just taking his time to prepare.

The only reason Ukraine has been holding on for this long is because all the stuff they got from the US and EU. If that stops it's not going to last long.

Pete Hegseth already completely fucked Ukraine by saying they need to give up on joining NATO and just accept that Russia can keep all the occupied areas. It's like the Trump administration just wants to kiss Putin's ass.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Surely putin will be dead by then?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

One can hope

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Either France or the UK can easily fill in. Both have nuclear submarines. Mutually assured destruction baby.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago (4 children)

France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.

And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.

Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 week ago (1 children)

France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.

You only need a few.

And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.

Both UK and France have nuclear armed subs, those are all that matter.

Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say even Putin doesn't want to spend the rest of his life in a bunker.

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

This is about how quickly the Russian war machine and economy can rebuild their capability to attack again. IIRC the report by the Danish Intelligence Service assumes that the Ukraine war stops now and that Europe does not increase its defensive capabilities.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago

Obviously the headline should have said "special military operation."

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago

Will. You meant “will”.

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