this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2025
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[–] [email protected] 27 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I don't get the goal here. It's not just that existing fabs are in Taiwan, I thought it was the knowledge was as well.

I was under the impression that we'd built a couple of fabs here and they're not productive due to a knowledge deficit. Maybe I'm uninformed.

It seems, to my uninformed self, that if we impose tariffs we'd be strengthening Taiwan/China relations. Wouldn't China still serve as a middle man?

I don't see us manufacturing when the dollar is so high relative to foreign currency; add in the lack of knowledge and facilities and I'm not sure what you get.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 3 days ago (17 children)

If TSMC doesn't want to set up shop in the USA, are the USA going to be able to produce chips on par with what TSMC can fab?

[–] [email protected] 32 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The US could probably do it... With hundreds of billions of government incentives to rapidly stand up the entire supply chain... Which would still take at least a decade. The machines that TSMC uses are made by ASML and themselves have a global supply chain of over 500 separate companies and are backordered for several years due to their inherent value.

In short, no.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago

It will take them 20 years to catch up to the 5-7 years they are behind, even with all the money in the world.

As you say, it's setting up the supply chain.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Intel has been trying to get itself into that position for years, with huge amounts of public money being pumped in, and it is struggling so badly the company lost patience and fired the CEO who had the best chance of getting this done. And, as others have said, it doesn't look like TSMC is about to let its US fabs do the most advanced stuff even if they could.

So this move will just make the best technology less accessible to the USA and tech products more expensive for Americans, for the foreseeable future.

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[–] [email protected] 24 points 3 days ago

From what I understand one of the things that is protecting Taiwan from China is their fabs. They will fight for their lives to make sure they are protected by this.

As someone with family over in Taiwan, I really want them to be okay. Things are getting depressing globally.

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 3 days ago

To avoid this, the administration would need to introduce exemptions, just like it did with China-made graphics cards and motherboards years ago.

If that is the approach, it would ensure tech monopoly for 5 years for all of the oligarchy that kisses his diaper.

More major issues with this is that while high end Chip production may be high value manufacturing, motherboards, electronics, and assembly is not, and there would likely be an export of chips to somewhere else to import finished products.

US/Trump explicit hatred for world is likely to get retributive tariffs, that makes chip plants unproductive investments, though Trump is hoping to have high foreign ownership/investment in those plants.

In 2022, the export share of Taiwan integrated circuits to US was just 2.46%, although in early 2024, total (all goods) Taiwan exports had US take lead over China for the first time.

That both US and China are decoupling from Taiwan is going to reduce any geopolitical subservience impulse that provokes a war with China. Taiwan may get closer to China instead of begging for more US "friendship".

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 days ago

more AI but less compute please make it make sense

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 days ago (3 children)

People hyped for the Nvidia 5000 series better get their cards before prices skyrocket across the board. I guess graphics cards weren't expensive enough or something.

Really though, no brand is safe from the soon-to-be insane prices if this does go through as a blanket tariff without exceptions. Better to err on the safe side and upgrade soon as you can, if you need to and you're not too wealthy to care.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Will this affect cpu prices? I don't know much about my computer's gut's guts

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

The most cutting-edge chips are made in Taiwan. Hardly any (if any) chip foundry comes close to the quality they export. It will raise prices of nearly everything in a PC as consumers will probably buy up the remaining stock of modern hardware as an alternative.

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[–] 0x0 5 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Maybe it'll bring chip prices down to Rest of the World™ to clear stock. Thanks Trump!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Nooe, they will just permanently raise prices everywhere and pocket bigger margins.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago (2 children)

They aren't pocketing anything though

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago

Trump is just adhering to US policy.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I say this not to be reactionary or pro trump.

Is there no way to use lesser nodes for wider applications? While there are processes that need as much speed as possible, I feel like what gives Taiwan semiconducting industries such great business is the fact that code optimization isn't as cost effective as the latest and greatest chips.

I HOPE these tariffs inspire better, more secure code to make less efficient chips more viable. Like a lemon to lemonade situation.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

If you optimize code, it will still run faster if the CPU or GPU is 30% faster.

If you make 50% speed improvements with code, you get 65% improvement with code+hardware upgrades. The hardware multiplies your software gains.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 days ago

Also, half of the gains in recent years have been in energy efficiency, not just speed.

So if the idea is to do more with less, you don’t wanna rely on old power-hungry designs.

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