this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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Ukraine

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Seems like Ukraine is hitting targets with greater frequency than before.

Anyone have thoughts on if it's increased Ukrainian skill/technology, increased Ukrainian quantity of weapons being sent, decrease in quantity of Russian anti-air defenses, Ukraine hitting 'softer' targets, combination of those, or something else?

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Ukraine has been building out their drone production heavily. It's easy to disperse and doesn't require large facilities that can be destroyed. (A few guys in a garage with a 3d printer and a steady parts supply can pump those suckers out.) And with US, UK, and French authorization to hit targets inside Russia, Russia's air defense is stretched extra thin. Furthermore, Russia has not kept pace with new construction of equipment, things blow up and just aren't replaced.

I only see this pace increasing, Russia has lost the ability to defend their airspace.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Lots of good points here. I think it's worth underscoring that even though all these deep strikes are done using Ukrainian drones, the supply of medium range missiles and fighter jets likely massively facilitates them, by forcing russia to concentrate air defences in regions exposed to those weapons.

Hell, just the fact that an F16 could be in the area has a suppressing effect, as it makes the russians more careful in turning on AA radar, which is exposed to HARM's.

I think what we're seeing is the Ukrainians taking maximum advantage of domestic weapons production and the AA dilemma russia is in. This is only going to get better.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago

It's hard to tell what the total success rate is, but the s300s and Soviet aa really doesn't seem to do well against these medium size drones.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

The oil sanctions I like to see. Burn to the ground mafia-controlled petrol station called russia!

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago

Try to get around those sanctions motherfucker!