this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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Lots of good points here. I think it's worth underscoring that even though all these deep strikes are done using Ukrainian drones, the supply of medium range missiles and fighter jets likely massively facilitates them, by forcing russia to concentrate air defences in regions exposed to those weapons.
Hell, just the fact that an F16 could be in the area has a suppressing effect, as it makes the russians more careful in turning on AA radar, which is exposed to HARM's.
I think what we're seeing is the Ukrainians taking maximum advantage of domestic weapons production and the AA dilemma russia is in. This is only going to get better.
It's hard to tell what the total success rate is, but the s300s and Soviet aa really doesn't seem to do well against these medium size drones.