Sure, China needs more ambitious medium-term climate targets, and this matters as its emissions are such a large fraction of the total, so their projections strongly influence global climate goals.
But much changed recently - their capacity for renewables is huge, and road transport electrifies. Meanwhile China is heading downhill now - population is clearly declining, emissions probably are too (awaiting latest data), and maybe even economy depending on which statistics you believe, and whether there's any soft-landing from the housing stall.
So the peaking target is probably no longer relevant, although they may still have trouble with their gdp intensity targets (due lower gdp than expected) - but there are various ways to re-interpret that.
It doesn't surprise me that Tsinghua profs try to keep options open to nourish the dreams of the old men in power - just maybe their three-child policy will bear fruit, maybe people want even more highways and bridges to nowhere, or they can keep exporting such projects (including their steel) to africa, south asia etc.
China also occasional gets extra-cold blasts some winters, which may help to explain keeping coal power capacity as a backup, while also keeping regional coal tycoons on-side, but on average this capacity may not get used much.
So when comparing targets, and especially aggregating such targets across countries to project the climate outcome, it's important to bear in mind that the gap between official ambition and reality - the probability of meeting emissions targets - differs a lot between countries, this partly reflects political systems - and China seems particularly 'conservative' in this regard ...
this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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Climate Action Tracker for China
- Policies and action: insufficient
- NDC (nationally determined contributions) target against modelled domestic pathways: highly insufficient
- NDC target against against fair share: insufficient
- Overall rating: highly insufficient
[Edit for clarity.]