this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

See 2020. The same result is quite likely. I don't care what any new organization or poll says. Don't care.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

The only thing missing from that picture is him holding the chain attached to Slave Leia.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago

“I don’t like people that get shot at.”

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago

I'd say it's unlikely to change minds, but it could cause people to be even more forceful in their support and more likely to vote.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago

There are a number of conflicting polls but realize that they can't account for things like "enthusiasm gap" which definitely cuts in Trump's favor at the moment. That said, the newscycles have been so insane lately, who knows what the next 10 inflection points before the election will bring.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Isn't 2k voters a comically small sample to draw any results from? I hope it is true, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I think 2k is a bit larger than the average polls I've seen which are 400 to 1500 usually.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

1000 is a solid sample size to start with, doubling that is better. But ultimately polls are flawed in the designers bias. How they frame questions matters and creates biases.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Still, if the poll is asking the same question over time, then you can track trends over time.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (4 children)

If it was me. I would stop my campaign out of respect for the family of the fallen.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago

Trump: "respect? That's that one song by the black lady right? insert racist ramble here"

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

That would be some sort of participation trophy.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

A bit unrelated but the Stock price for Trump Media went up

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

He does poll much higher than Harris in some polls that show up on Fivethirtyeight but it hardly makes much sense to include those polls, imo.

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