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US home prices have soared 47% so far this decade, outpacing all of the growth seen in the 1990s and 2010s (www.businessinsider.com)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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US home prices have soared 47% so far this decade.
The price surge has outpaced the gains seen in the 1990s and 2010s, and is nearly ahead of the 2000s.
The rising value of homes has coincided with a millennial-fueled demand surge and years of low mortgage rates.

US home prices have soared 47.1% so far this decade, according to a ResiClub analysis of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

The massive price gains seen in the first four years of the 2020s have eclipsed all of the growth seen in the 1990s and 2010s, according to the analysis. Housing prices in those two decades grew 30.1% and 44.7%, respectively.

On top of that, housing price growth in the 2020s is on the verge of eclipsing all of the growth seen in the 2000s, which was 47.3% after peaking at just over 80% before the 2007 housing market crash.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

So is this adjusted for inflation? The word is not mentioned once in the article.

Using inflation calculators I get the following (used https://www.calculator.net/inflation-calculator.html and https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/; getting similar results)

1990s - $124,800 ($298,200 today)
2000s - $165,300 ($299,800 today)
2010s - $219,000 ($313,600 today)
2020s - $327,100 ($394,700 today)
Now - $420,800

Looking at FRED economic data (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS), it looks like thats where they got their figures. As far as I can tell is it not inflation adjusted. They have picked the Q4 results for each year as base for the 1 Jan.

When adjusted for inflation, the increase in value since the 1990s is much less AND the increase was biggest between 2010-2020.

Also on their own figures in the article; between 2020 and now the median price is up 28% without inflation adjustment, and 7% with. Compared to 1990 the median price corrected for inflation is up 40%, but the biggest jump is 2010-2020; it began 2020 32% above the 1990 price.

The point? House prices are up, but inflation has been uneven over that period, with a big spike recently - the dramatic figures in the article may not reflect the real story. According to the calculators from 2020 to 2024 the total inflation rate is 21.54%; equivalent to 4.7% a year. Inflation accounts for much more of the perceived price rise than the actual real value rise.

The problem with inflation is people only think about today's inflation rate. Current US inflation is 3.5% but that is on top of last years inflation, and the year before that etc. So dramatic articles like this are really of dubious value.

EDIT: The article links to "analysis" by another website ResiClib. They do not seem to have looked at inflation at all either.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

Entirely correct. This article and the associated data is useless without factoring in inflation.