this post was submitted on 13 May 2024
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I provided an argument that wasn't a two liner, dependence on China.
Once local manufacturers start closing their factories and your start losing all the local expertise, what do you do when China is in a position where they can dictate the price because they're now in control of the market?
You've got a very short term view of things if you only think about the benefit for consumers as prices are low due to subsidies, once the subsidies are gone you're left with a market where cars are no cheaper but the money doesn't stay in your country anymore, that's a huge loss compared to the short term benefit.
Anyone who paid attention to the globalization debate back in the 90s knows that it's not beneficial in the long term to depend on other countries. The difference this time is that China is trying to force everyone's hand instead of having rich countries willingly sending manufactures overseas.
It's a completely valid concern that you've brought up regarding dependence on China.
I don't believe there will be a point where that happens. That's pretty much the reasoning behind why I don't agree with the tariffs. Automakers aren't stupid. I truly believe that they can compete, but just don't want to because it's more profitable to get the Government to levy tariffs against electric cars than to make them instead of gasoline cars. Americans can run their own subsidy regime to flip this maths. I'm pretty sure that automakers would rather make electric cars than no cars.
Yes, it might result in layoffs along the way. I regard that as the cost of progress.
People though it wouldn't happen for so many things and then COVID happened and we finally realized that we had shipped our manufacturing capacity for so much stuff to Asia that we're now playing catch-up to reverse the mistakes of the past.
Again, it's not just about layoffs, it's about making sure you can't get fucked by another country if they decide to make a move against you. It just requires one political incident and you're in for a round of inflation because China decides to increase its prices just enough that people still don't have a choice but to buy from them because the alternatives are still too expensive.
And if you think American manufacturers can't go bankrupt then you don't need to look too far to be proven wrong and once that happens then you're at the mercy of the goodwill of foreigners. Considering the political landscape in the USA that's not a position I would want to be in.