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1.5°C before 2030
2.0°C before 2050
3.0°C before 2100
That's what I get if I skim a few articles. Dates are without mitigation.
So basically we only get to check one of those predictions within the next ten years.
The 2100 date for 3C is going to take 75 years to test.
When scientists predicted mass starvation in 2000 it was only 25 years out, but by the time that prediction turned out false everyone had basically forgotten the predictions. And that’s just a 25 year gap.
What I’m saying is that there’s zero skin in the game, reputation-wise, for someone making climate predictions 75 years out.
That reasoning, if not the exact words about scientists being wrong, was also used by critics to say climate warning plateaued and no action at all should be taken. Turned out the critics were wrong.
I've seen a lot of the classics being brought up: There is no warming, warming is good, it's not human made, it's too late anyway, it's just the weather, there are no ill effects, ... So I'll follow the scientists, they got a lot more right than the critics.