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Apple Weather's forecasts are so bad my meteorologist made a post about it
(spacecityweather.com)
this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2023
66 points (98.5% liked)
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The different models definitely do not produce the same output and some weather conditions are extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy (especially rain). Even the "current" conditions are often very different depending on the model since they rarely use actual observations... and even if they did the next city block over could be totally different).
Which one is the most accurate depends on your location (in particular, your latitude, proximity to the ocean, nearby mountains, etc).
Even little things like standing near (not even under) a tree can drastically alter your air temperature - because trees raise the humidity of the air around them and a slight humidity change has a drastic effect on temperature.
Apple most likely uses multiple models.
That's why when they take air temperature samples they take multiple samples from multiple locations and they explicitly don't put them under trees, behind shade, unusually high up.
If you're standing under a tree resulting in a lower air temperature that won't affect the weather prediction because the temperature isn't taken from your phone.
Per apple it looks like for the US they use the weather channel.