this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2024
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The odds are certainly some of the best we can hope for:
Higher political engagement in general from Millennials and Gen Z than in the past.
It's a general election, so higher voter turnout in general.
Trump has been banging the drum of fascism (or at least authoritarianism), so people will turn out just to vote against him.
Republicans have been glibly attacking women's reproductive rights and medical procedures like IVF. Both issues will increase turnout.
They showed their ass when they acquitted Paxton.
He's not running against someone like Beto. He's running against a former football player, and if there's one thing Texans love, it's football. Cruz is already unpopular by virtue of being himself.
All those Conservative folks moving from California to Texas are moving to Florida, now.
This was always mildly funny. Conservatives like to talk about democrats importing voters to turn the state blue, but from my point of view it was out of state republicans moving in keeping it red.
Literally family of mine is doing this right now. It's weird.
I hope so. Texas is somewhat purple and still has a chance of turning eventually, but Florida is a lost cause.
It'll be a perfect place for hateful libertarian types to suddenly learn that they have been taking everything for granted their whole lives.
Hope they enjoy hurricanes and not being able to get homeowners' insurance.
Just make it a libertarian Free Market! According to conservatives, it will sort itself out.../s
I fear that he's going to under-perform his party, but still squick out a win. People dislike him almost universally, but the GOP folks who don't respect him can still count on his vote and they know that he will kiss the ring to keep his job.
Also, I've decided "squick" is probably a good verb to use for most things that Ted Cruz does.
Let's make sure people have a plan in place so they can get out there and vote. He can squick the fuck off.