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So does the Chinese think it will be a quick war? Recent history has shown that this kind of years never end. The Taiwanese have been preparing for this for years.
Russians thought taking Ukraine would last a few weeks and that war has been ongoing for couple of years. The Saudis are sucked into Yemen for several years. The US got into 2 forever wars at the same time.
Taiwan is a 13,976 sq mile Island. Yemen is a 214,287 sq mile desert. Ukraine is 233,062 sq miles. It's not a fair comparison. China could take Taiwan very quickly because it's a tiny little island. They're more likely to simply embargo the island though and turn it into the next Cuba.
I assume you have little military knowledge. Personally I don't make claims like this at all because I know the limits of my own knowledge. If China were to attempt to take Taiwan it would be devastating for both countries. War is absolute shit, many civilians would die, and what would China really gain? They'd gain being on America's shitlist which historically is terrible. Be careful with statements like these, they're the same ones I read right before Russia invaded Ukraine.
I literally just responded to another comment saying that I don't believe China would ever invade Taiwan and it's just US propaganda intended on selling weapons through fear mongering.
It is tiny, but far more parity in terms of arms and the whole being an island thing makes it exponentially harder to invade than say, a country you share a a land border with including roads leading you to where you want to go.
No it isn't. They could carpet bomb the whole island in a week. They don't even need to step foot on Taiwan to conquer it. Their Navy and Air Force is more than enough. But they'd be more likely to just blockade the country and starve everyone.
That being said, I don't actually believe China will invade Taiwan. There's no real incentive. I don't doubt that they're expanding their military, but I believe it's entirely US propaganda intended on selling weapons through fear mongering.
Link to show invading is not trivial https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day/
Enforcing a blockade around an island full of long range anti ship and air defences, aided by the US military, is extremely hard. Also and more importantly it's a very long dragged out war that gives Taiwan time to build allies, and the west to organise, which will make it harder and harder to enforce.
Finally you're replying to someone saying the war will take a long time, which you initially disagree with then go on to talk about an embargo which more than agrees with it. It's going to take ages to resolve if they attack and it'll almost certainly include Russia distracting NATO in Europe. I dearly hope china sees sense and gets rid of xi before his desperation for personal achievements in his lifetime causes the nation and world a lot of pointless suffering
I think you're misunderstanding. If China were to invade, it would be over quickly. I'm not saying that China wouldn't have losses in the process, I'm just saying it wouldn't take long due to the fact that the island is roughly the size of Maryland. To add to that, I doubt the US would actually get involved and would instead just try to sell weapons to Taiwan, just like Ukraine.
That being said, invasion aside, like as a completely separate course of action, I believe they'd be more likely to take the long term path of embargo. They wouldn't be bombarding the island, just preventing supplies from coming in or out. They can do this outside of the range of Taiwan's defenses and Taiwan is incapable of sustaining itself for very long. The war would likely end within a year, the US would probably make a lot of threats, but ultimately wouldn't sacrifice the US economy for a war with China.
Now, this is really the most important part. It is well within China's best interest to not invade Taiwan. They have a symbiotic relationship and the whole situation is just posturing between the US and China and has nothing to do with Taiwan at all.
Yeah, man.