Technology
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I guess we'll see where it goes then.
But the fact remains that there really isn't a realistic FOSS competitor to Twitter, despite that being a fairly easy problem to solve. I would've thought that would be one of the first things to get implemented, since it can be filtered in all kinds of interesting ways (e.g. a matrix bridge that listens for topics).
While a tech solution to replace Twitter is possible, the tech is only about 5% of what makes Twitter Twitter - the other 95% is the userbase. Which again counts in Threads favour because they already have a huge Instagram userbase. They could release any old hastily put together system and still get 30m users... Hmm.
Yup, they won initially by being better than Myspace, and I'm convinced they stay on top largely due to inertia.