this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2024
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I think some here are grossly overestimating average human capacity. There are many humans that have difficulty discerning the context of a statement based on their experiences aka examples.
This isn't AGI, but in another couple years at this pace, it's coming. Not necessarily because it is some higher mind, but because the metric for AGI is can it perform all the tasks our minds can at our level. Not necessarily Stephen Fry or Albert Einstein, just as well as a median asshole. Have you met us?
We aren't all that, and most of us spend most of our time on a script, sapience must be exercised, many do many don't, and isn't necessary for what we will abuse these for. It would probably be kinder to restrict discussion of such topics from memory when this matures. Even humans have great difficulty wrestling with them, to the point of depression and existential dread.
As people noted the last few AI autumns, this is a bad assumption. Winter is coming. S-curve, not exponential.
When people say stuff like this it always makes me wonder "what pace, exactly?" Truthfully, I feel like hearing someone say "well, generative AI is such a fast-moving field" at this point is enough on its own to ping my BS detector.
Maybe it was forgivable to say it in May 2023, but at this point it definitely feels like progress has slowed down/leveled off. AI doesn't really seem to me to be significantly more capable than it was a year ago -- I guess OpenAI can generate videos now, but it's been almost a year since "will smith eating spaghetti," so...
I'm gonna be honest the videos did better than I expected, still meh in the weird uncanny valley aspect, but better than I expected. But still think that we have reached the end of the fast progress curve due to the whole gpt 4 is basically a couple of 3.5's chained together. Which I think is a sign of people running out of ideas, same as how in the era of multicore cpus the speed of cpus has not increased that drastically, and certainly not that noticeably (compared to the 90's etc).
What is going to be amazing however is the rise of 40k mechanicus style coders, I saw somebody go 'you don't need to know how to code, my program gave this http error, I didn't know what it meant, so I asked GPT how to fix it and implemented that and it works'. Amazing, bunch of servitors.