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The law passed in 2020, the dramatic increases in crime started happening virtually immediately.
That's just one story, there are many, many like it.
https://www.kgw.com/article/money/business/survey-portland-businesses-break-ins-vandalism/283-1f1d2229-20ad-42a4-bd5d-58c24143daba
https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2023/03/07/portland-small-business-break-in-vandalism-2022.html
Alright, first of all, I want to let you know that I'm speaking with you from a place of respect. Tone gets lost in text, and I don't want to convey contentiousness. Thank you for taking the time to have this discussion.
Okay, you have anecdotes and surveys. That's really all the first link is, and I find it to be, again, lacking in any kind of hard evidence about an increase in property crime that's statistically significant. The second link is paywalled, so I can't speak to it.
Same survey group asking small busineses in 2022 "Hey, you been broken into?" 63% say yes.
2023 - 78% say yes.
Not a good look. And this is only small business, like this one who closed after being broken into 15 times (!):
https://www.koin.com/news/civic-affairs/rains-pdx-closes-cites-employee-safety-crime-in-portland/
It's not counting places like REI:
https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2023/04/rei-to-close-its-only-portland-store-citing-break-ins-theft.html
Or Target:
https://www.wweek.com/news/courts/2023/10/17/target-has-been-complaining-to-city-officials-about-crime-at-shuttered-stores-for-over-a-year/
Or Nike:
https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2023/02/nike-wants-to-hire-off-duty-police-as-security-to-keep-portland-stores-open.html
Or Fred Meyer (Kroger):
https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2023/06/portland-partners-with-fred-meyer-to-increase-security-at-stores-to-combat-theft-crimes.html
Okay, I'm not interested in the big retailers because they made a lot of noise lying (yes, lying) about big increases in national theft rates. This could easily be part of the same narrative that they've been using to shutter stores without scaring the shit out of shareholders.
I will listen to small businesses. So, the next thing we need to know is we need burglary statistics from other big cities in the pacific region outside of Oregon to determine if the increase is statistically significant or if it's just noise. 19 other cities is the minimum of what we need. I think the FBI has publicly available crime data in a machine readable format, I'll see if I can't run it down. If we get a P-value < 0.05, there's less than a 5% chance that the null hypothesis (Oregon's property crime isn't meaningfully different from the nation) is true. If I have the time to do it, I'll get back to everyone with what I've found.