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I expected the Linux desktop market share to be a bit higher since Windows 11 can't run on low spec hardware (and it's trash).
That will see more increases over time, especially as Windows 10 EOL approaches.
I predict that so many people will run 10 past EOL that Microsoft will be forced to extend it like they did for XP and 7.
Oh it's going to be bad. Really bad. Microsoft said over a billion people were using Windows 10 & 11, but the vast majority of those were on machines that already ran Windows 7/8.1 just fine (and may have been upgraded forcefully).
They tried once to limit hardware compatibility as Intel was switching over to 10th gen by giving people a cut-off point where new versions of Windows 10 would not work on hardware older than Intel 8th gen, but it was so poorly received that they walked it back (and did it with Windows 11 instead).
An actual EOL is going to be very tough to pull off because everyone expects their computers to last more than three years now.
XP released in 2001, only stopped getting support in 2014, and got an emergency security patch as recently as 2019. Expecting computers to last more than 3 years isn't new.
I think most people who are already using windows will just stay on 10 for as long as possible rather than switching. I had a friend still using windows 7 by the time 11 rolled around. But once 10 hits EOL maybe the momentum will convince more of those to switch to a Linux distro
Meanwhile they say 12 will come out in 2024. Lol
It's higher in countries that are poorer and run old hardware. For example Linux has more than 10% market share in India.