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The Fed is trying to get ahead of the next crisis. As aggressively as they raised rates they are also backing off that rise.
There are a lot of indicators that show high deflationary pressure in residential and commercial real estate, automotive and other manufacturing sectors. Commercial real estate alone has the potential to torpedo some major banks in a way that would make the tech sector banking crash look like a small speed bump.
The Fed is probably going to keep rates where they are through most of 2024 unless those indicators get worse.
There are no other major economies that are going to be able pick up the slack if the US dips into a recession. Congress is such a mess that it can’t be relied upon to fix itself. Rates is one of the major tools the Fed has to stop the next crisis and they won’t use it unless they have to.
Yeah, commercial real estate could be a serious issue for the banks. A small amount of deflation is not a bad thing, although large amounts in a very short time definitely is. From what I am hearing, people expect the Fed to begin cutting rates as early as March or April, which definitely is not most of 2024. If the cuts are slower than what the raises were, we might be alright. But something makes me doubt that, because the Fed very much seems to lurch from one crisis to the next. Seems more like an out-of-control train than a well-controlled system.
Edit: Not to mention that other central banks are buying of gold because of the US threatening to send Russia's dollars to Ukraine. And therefore showing that dollars as reserves are not meant to be trusted and can be removed on a whim if it suits the US's political agenda.