12/15/2023 Estimated DRS count: 75,632,033 ((using today's DRSbot total + fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets) x 4.129)
The 4.129 multiplier comes from 11/30/2023 Form 10-Q divided by DRSbot 11/30/2023 total: 75,400,000 / 18,262,331 = 4.129
Bloomberg data (to 12/9/2023), DRS estimated counts, and other:
| Holding | Number of shares | As of |
|---|---|---|
| ETFs | 29,950,420 | 12/9/2023 |
| MFs, Index Funds, Pension Funds, etc | 35,549,240 | 12/9/2023 |
| Other Institutional Ownership | 30,102,685 | 12/9/2023 |
| Insiders Stagnant | 14,339,510 | 12/9/2023 |
| Insiders | 38,655,910 | 12/9/2023 |
| DRS'd - 200k Computershare accounts | 75,632,033 | 12/15/2023 |
| Non-DRS - 200k acct 25% stuck in IRA | 18,908,008 | 12/15/2023 |
| Other | 62,376,509 | 12/15/2023 |
- Total Outstanding on 11/30/2023: 305,514,315 (10/12/2023 was 305,241,294)
- Thank you to lawsondt for the Bloomberg data to 12/9/2023
- "Non-DRS - 200k acct 25% stuck in IRA" is a conservative percentage. The Google share count surveys have suggested the 200k Computershare accounts have 30-40% additional shares stuck in IRAs.
- "Fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets" is primarily whale #1's 1,389,665 DRS shares (as of 11/21/2023). Long story of switching subs and losing their DRS share count. So added the "fix inadvertent" column to capture their DRS shares.
Discussion points:
- It seems odd on some of the DRS count fluctuations since the beginning.
- There have been 2 "somewhat hidden" 2022 rugpulls (May 2022 and Aug/Sep/Oct 2022), the June 2023 Mainstar rugpull, and now the Sep/Oct/Nov 2023 rugpull.
- It seems odd on recent DRS count stagnating (excluding the Mainstar rugpull of 1.27 million shares). From a very simplistic view assuming 200,000 Computershare accounts:
| Buy X number of shares a month | Multiply by 3 months per quarter | Total DRS per quarter if 100,000 active accounts | Total DRS per quarter if 200,000 active accounts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 300,000 | 600,000 |
| 2 | 6 | 600,000 | 1,200,000 |
| 3 | 9 | 900,000 | 1,800,000 |
| 4 | 12 | 1,200,000 | 2,400,000 |
| 5 | 15 | 1,500,000 | 3,000,000 |
- The April 2023 List of stockholders DRS numbers seem correct and line up with SEC filings.
- Possible some investors have had to un-DRS.
- Possible economic slowdown and inflation have reduced investor purchasing power.
- Possible whale investors who helped inflate DRS numbers alot, have dramatically slowed down their purchasing.
- Tinfoil - forces inflate DRS shares 9 to 18 months back, then drain their DRS shares later. Probably spread across say 3,000 accounts to make it seem like normal activity.
- Tinfoil - operational efficiency draining from DRS non-Book shares on certain dates.
- Tinfoil - possible something funny with SEC filing reported number.
- There is the recent post from sister sub, google search on: Deep analysis on Computershare recurring buys reddit
He examines the bi-weekly recurring Computershare buys. The bi-weekly recurring buys were around $900k to $1.5 million.
An alternative DRS count estimation may be estimating money spent by retail purchasing GME per quarter. It was around $1.2 million average per 6 recurring Computershare buys per quarter. Then say a massively conservative $200k per other trading day. So:
If average $1.2 million spent per bi-weekly purchase, and say $14 a share, multiply by 6 for one GME quarter:
- 1,200,000 / 14 = 85,714 shares * 6 = 514,284 shares
- The 6 recurring buys alone should add 514,284 DRS shares.
Other 54 trading days:
- $200,000 / $14 a share = 14,285 shares a day
- 54 * 14,285 = 771,390 shares
Total:
514,284 + 771,390 = +1,285,674 DRS shares a quarter
Grey ape here - I can't imagine anyone that is part of this movement drs shares only to sell down here. I've always thought these numbers were just flat out wrong and the actual drs is higher.
I remember reading before the drs movement really kicked off that we all expected there to be way more shares floating around than actually existed and were issued so part of the reason to drs was to expose this fraud....well maybe the numbers and rug pulls don't make sense because fraud?