Technology
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I 100% agree with every point you made. And no, I do not want that, at all.
I still think it will play out like this though. Just because the network effect, speed of iNnoVaTIve feature development and marketing combined will favor Meta - a combination of "Why can't mlem app do X?", "All your friends are here" and banner ads on Insta. The "OG Fediverse" will still exist, maybe even grow - but federation as a new architecture for all Social Media will be off the table.