this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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We’re pretty much agreeing here. I don’t think them federating out makes much of a difference. They get the data from the reverse for free. They only have to scoop, and it’s worth almost noting individually.
But that’s their current game. Has been for a long time. Serving one ad is a tiny thing. But they add up.
However, them wanting to federate indicates they see the fediverse as something worth noting and paying attention to, possibly even joining. That’s not nothing.
They either think:
That response can come in many forms.
If they provoke a backlash of defederation (done), that causes devision and argument. They win by shattering the potential threat before it can grow.
If they are allowed to join and become a large voice and eventually be like gmail to email, big enough to have control and provide the filtering people are already (quietly, carefully) asking for. All they need to do is to offer “spam filters” and a “personal feed” and we have Facebook 2.0 and they don’t even have to foot most of the server bills.
I’m not sure how to win this, but there’s a lot of ways to lose it.
I think this is inevitable, in part because serving is expensive, and now that we might get significant spammer activity, complicated. Carrying the analogy on, though, I have a Proton account and I can give it out in real life just the way I would a Gmail account. There is no such possibility with Twitter. They could try and put up a hard wall once they have enough buy-in, but that didn't work so well for Yahoo mail, and hopefully it wouldn't for Threads.
So yeah, I expect I'll be on a little instance somewhere, and I'll still be able to participate in the equivalent of the Obama AMA hosted on one of the big ones.
Sry, I‘m still not following. I don’t understand your argument, are you saying they want to federate to gain additional users to grab data from? Because I don’t think that’s going to be a significant amount of people.
Most people don’t care about what makes the fediverse desirable to its current users, all it does is add friction to them and therefore I don’t see it growing much either.
I think the reason why meta wants to federate is this:
I don’t think they’re doing it to "get more data" or to "take over the fediverse". There’s nothing worth taking over and they can probably get the data anyways, it’s all openly available. So it’s basically all upside and no downside for them.
If they thought the fediverse was insignificant they wouldn’t even bother. Them spending publicly visible time and energy on it means there’s something for them to gain.
But yeah, I’m not entirely sure what yet. Like you said, reading data is freely available, so it’s not just that.
What happens if you merge the user base of a small network and a huge network? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect Will the small network gain from the huge one or the other way round? Also there is a lot to gain. The users base of the fediverse and it's infrastructure grew by 5x in the last two years: https://fedidb.org/ Meta has a big interest in extinguishing a competitor before it profits from the bandwagon effect.
Active users went down, though. I don’t think mastodon is a big competitor for Meta, Twitter and TikTok are.