this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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Lol, as if Facebook cares about the Fediverse. With its 141 million users, Threads is already ten times bigger than the Fediverse ever was.
ActivityPub isn't a threat to their business, Bluesky is.
They do. Their business model is to take out upstarts with growing popularity trends. By the time they actually get big, it's too late.
With several organisations making the move to the fediverse, it is something they want to deal with.
Look at the fediverse’s monthly active users, it’s declining. There’s a pretty solid wall of friction when trying to participate and the vast majority of people won’t ever be a part of it in its current state. There’s no upward tend here and I doubt that it’s ever going to be a real danger for meta.
Isn't Bluesky much smaller than Mastodon?
At the moment, because it's almost impossible to get in without knowing someone who's already in. Currently, after about 10 months, Bluesky has about 2 million users (a sixth of the Fediverse). However, those 12 million Fediverse users have accumulated over seven years. Based on the statistics of fediverse.observer, the majority of those accounts seem to be inactive as well. Mastodon shows growth (about 100k per month) but other parts of the Fediverse are shrinking in activity.
Wikipedia has a graph of Bluesky's user base growth:
At its current pace, it'll take over a year and a half for BS to overtake the Fediverse (in total accounts, four or five months when looking at active users), but I expect those numbers jump up when the platform leaves beta. Wait list + current user base on Bluesky already exceeds the reported "active user" count on Fediverse Observer.
My personal anecdata: all the (semi) corporate entities I used to follow are over at Bluesky right now. Some, annoyingly, use it as their primary platform, while others cross post the same way people did when Mastodon gained mainstream attention. A few of the people/organisations I used to follow on Twitter are on Mastodon (almost exclusively people in the tech sector and a government service here or there) but I haven't seen any growth whatsoever. Various experiments with Mastodon and other fediverse media also seem to have ended, with people leaving the Fediverse for various reasons (Alec from Technology Connections has done nice write-ups of why the Fediverse kind of sucks if you're "internet famous" right now, and the reactions from Fediverse evangelists below show why that's going to stay that way for a while).
I want Bluesky to either commit to federation, or for the Fediverse to take over, but neither seem to stand much of a chance against any corporation with VC money right now. Most of the internet doesn't seem to be interested in federation and even here on Lemmy many people are confused by it (i.e. "I want to send this person a message but when I go to their profile it says I'm not logged in" because they went to the other user's home instance instead of their own, an easy mistake to make).
I think Bluesky is even smaller. It probably could’ve been a Twitter competitor before threads came around.