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Why is the US ramping up production of plutonium ‘pits’ for nuclear weapons?
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 26 Nov 2023
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Will it be an escalation of the Russia/Ukraine war? Or will the Israel/Gaza war spill over into the wider region? Or will America try to start some shit over Taiwan? Who knows!
Clock is ticking, though.
The correct phrase is, “will China start some shit over Taiwan”
China doesn't really do military conflict. They're not like Russia who has had several military conflicts in just the past few decades; China hasn't really done anything like that for over 40 years. If they decide to do anything they'll probably do something that's partially economic and partially political. If anyone is going to start a war over Taiwan it's going to be America - they've been signaling it pretty hard.
My guess? China starts restricting trade or infrastructure or energy or something to put pressure on Taiwain, America decides it's time to liberate them from "the yolk of Chinese tyranny" and introduce some Freedom^TM^, and then it's WW3
That's a pretty wild guess given how China keeps doing military drills involving amphibious landings and flying into Taiwanese airspace/going into Taiwanese waters. You wouldn't practice amphibious landings to prepare a defense against the US, you'd do that to prepare for an invasion. China talks a lot about not using its military outside its borders, which has been mostly true, but they see Taiwan as within their borders so it doesn't really tell us much.
If China wants to limit imports of goods from Taiwan they absolutely could, and it would be difficult for the US/Japan to respond to, but if by "restricting trade" you mean a blockade then that is an act of war that the US/Japan would respond to much more aggressively. Just like China would respond if we blockaded them.
Maybe it would look more like a blockade.
How come it's an act of war if China blockades Taiwan, but it's not an act of war when America does the same thing to countries it sanctions?
By definition, a blockade is an act of war, regardless of who does it. I'm not sure why you'd think I wouldn't call the US blockading some country and act of war (although I have a guess), just as much as I'd call Israel blockading Palestine as an act of war.
The reason other countries don't respond to a US blockade with all-out war is because we get other countries to agree to the blockade first and then do it as a block, which means the blockaded country would have to be prepared to fight the US plus its allies. Given the relative size of the countries' militaries involved, the blockaded ones usually decide not to fight.
Agreeing with the US's decision to support Taiwan against China is not the same as support for all US military decisions, or even most of them.
This is Tibetan deletion. Something China knows quite a bit about, I guess.