this post was submitted on 23 Nov 2023
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As a Dutchman, I'm kind of shocked. The battle seemed to be between the previous largest party VVD, the new NSC party and the labour/greens fusion. Then the PVV suddenly surged. Apparently a lot of people who weren't sure yet ended up going with the PVV. Out of the 4 largest parties we have 3 that are right-wing and/or conservative. The PVV is far-right (though hard to place), the VVD is a neoliberal party, and the NSC is closer to the centre but also quite conservative. We're entering dark days...
The leader of the labour/green did a very bad campaign. I voted for him out of conviction, but I can totally see undecided voters not being convinced by his campaign. The loss of the VVD can be explained partly by the punishment that ruling parties get in elections in these times. I'm just hoping the leader of the NSC doesn't agree to be in a coalition with PVV. Best thing we can hope for now is a center-right coalition with the Labour/Greens, the VVD (neo-liberals) and NSC (center-right) :(
What shocks me is that unconvinced voters thought his idiotic anti-Islam position wasn’t a reason not to vote for him.
They’ve know that’s what he stands for the past 17 years. Sure, he said it’s ’negotiable’ if it helps him get into government sometime during the campaign but now that he’s the biggest he’s gonna make a stand on that once more.
Everyone here would do well to read the room a bit if we find that surprising. Or at least keep tabs on whats going on outside of your particular ideological bubble.
Anti immigrant sentiment is up big time across the EU right now. And specifically directed towards people from the Middle East and Africa. I'd wager a lot of people didn't vote for him despite his stances on that issue, but rather because of them.
The thing is, he kinda sorta distanced himself from his earlier anti-Islam statements. Not really though, but he made them ‘negotiable’ in order to get into government. This in turn seems to have opened the door for VVD to not exclude them from taking part in government from the start. This made PVV a ‘legitimate’ choice where it was once seen as throwing away your vote because they would be excluded anyway.
But I’m no political analyst so take this with a grain of salt.
Yeah I think that’s a fair take
To be fair, his concession speech was stellar. Talk about peaking too late.
And D66, otherwise they won't have a majority. Though the Senate (Eerste Kamer) I think will still be a challenge.
Ah right, I forgot about D66. But they will surely want in. Alternatively, either the CDA or the CU, or both, could also enter the coalition
Would have to be both. I guess technically that's an option, in that it might make it more palatable for VVD+NSC, but then we're at a five-party coalition (six if you count GL/PvdA as two parties).
What would you say the chances are of Wilders being able to form a coalition?
Before the election I would have said unlikely, because both NSC and VVD ruled out a coalition with PVV. Afterwards the NSC already caved to "respect the choice of the voters" and the VVD also did not make a clear statement.
To add to this, even during the campaign the leader of the VVD (neo-liberal party) didn't exclude the possibility of working with Wilders like the former PM of the VVD always did. I think this helped Wilders a lot.
She did not exclude a coalition, if the VVD got more votes. Now that Wilders would become prime minister, they are more hesitant about it.
Hesitant but they’re gonna cave at some point I’m sure. Either that or they’re going to negotiate a deal for the VVD leader to become PM to give the PVV some other thing they want.
I agree. The VVD is too power-hungry not to form a coalition with the PVV
That sucks. Thanks for the insight.
Perhaps it's like the Trump win. People declared they'd never vote for him publicly, but secretly did
May I ask if there are any kind of statistic significance in terms of age or city/suburbs/land PVV voters are stronger than voting for any other parties?