this post was submitted on 21 Oct 2023
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Great game for drama, but that was really some pretty terrible rugby all round, with the occasional flash.
England playing ten man rugby, as they’ve largely done throughout with the exception of drubbings against the minnows. Given the turmoil in the set up over the last year,and the conditions on the night you can’t hold that against them but it doesn’t make for a great spectacle from a neutral point of view (drama aside, obvs).
South Africa were clearly hungover after last week. It was telling how the game shifted with the subs later on. I’m sure a lot of the discourse around that will be around the depth of the Saffa squad, but it looked to me more like a knackered starting fifteen playing a relatively fresh one. Ox and Kwagga the point of difference for the second week in a row imo.
Suspect the ABs win number four next week, but that way this tournament is going it’ll probably be England with a chair off the top rope.
My heart is going for the ABs of course, but I'll be waiting to see the referee appointment & the weather forecast before making a pick with my head.
I think South Africa are favourites for now, and everybody thinks that the game is going to be really close. I'd say there's just as much chance that the game could be quite decisive one way or the other, as it going right down to the wire again. It really comes down to whether one team can dictate the way the game is played for a long time or not, and that's influenced a lot by the officials and whether its wet or dry.
NZ has probably played their best 15 for more minutes than SA, but SA has probably had to play more minutes at a higher intensity for longer with tough games against Ireland, Scotland, France, England, then a final. NZ really had one tough match against France, then reasonably manageable intensity until Ireland, and then a step down - but still enough to keep the edge honed against Argentina.